Human cognition is influenced not only by external task demands but also latent mental processes and brain states that change over time. Here, we use novel Bayesian switching dynamical systems algorithm to identify hidden brain states and determine that these states are only weakly aligned with external task conditions. We compute state transition probabilities and demonstrate how dynamic transitions between hidden states allow flexible reconfiguration of functional brain circuits. Crucially, we identify latent transient brain states and dynamic functional circuits that are optimal for cognition and show that failure to engage these states in a timely manner is associated with poorer task performance and weaker decision-making dynamics. We replicate findings in a large sample (N = 122) and reveal a robust link between cognition and flexible latent brain state dynamics. Our study demonstrates the power of switching dynamical systems models for investigating hidden dynamic brain states and functional interactions underlying human cognition.

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This paper addresses the Bayesian estimation of the von-Mises Fisher (vMF) mixture model with variational inference (VI). The learning task in VI consists of optimization of the variational posterior distribution. However, the exact solution by VI does not lead to an analytically tractable solution due to the evaluation of intractable moments involving functional forms of the Bessel function in their arguments. To derive a closed-form solution, we further lower bound the evidence lower bound where the bound is tight at one point in the parameter distribution. While having the value of the bound guaranteed to increase during maximization, we derive an analytically tractable approximation to the posterior distribution which has the same functional form as the assigned prior distribution. The proposed algorithm requires no iterative numerical calculation in the re-estimation procedure, and it can potentially determine the model complexity and avoid the over-fitting problem associated with conventional approaches based on the expectation maximization. Moreover, we derive an analytically tractable approximation to the predictive density of the Bayesian mixture model of vMF distributions. The performance of the proposed approach is verified by experiments with both synthetic and real data.

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks—three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal flexibility among the three networks. Our proposed methods provide a novel and powerful generative model for investigating dynamic brain connectivity.

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