Most invertebrates in the ocean begin their lives with planktonic larval phases that are critical for dispersal and distribution of these species. Larvae are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, so understanding interactive effects of environmental stressors on larval life is essential in predicting population persistence and vulnerability of species. Here, we use a novel experimental approach to rear larvae under interacting gradients of temperature, salinity, and ocean acidification, then model growth rate and duration of olympia oyster larvae and predict the suitability of habitats for larval survival. We find that temperature and salinity are closely linked to larval growth and larval habitat suitability, but larvae are tolerant to acidification at this scale. We discover that present conditions in the Salish Sea are actually suboptimal for olympia oyster larvae from populations in the region, and that larvae from these populations might actually benefit from some degree of global ocean change. Our models predict a vast decrease in mean pelagic larval duration by the year 2095, which has the potential to alter population dynamics for this species in future oceans. Additionally, we find that larval tolerance can explain large-scale biogeographic patterns for this species across its range. Many marine invertebrates begin their lives as tiny planktonic larvae that drift in the water column and disperse away from their parents. For sessile species, these larval periods are especially important as they are the only times throughout life history during which organisms are capable of dispersal. As such, survival during the larval phase is critical for the persistence of populations. Larvae are highly sensitive to environmental conditions 1,2 and the vast majority of larvae do not live to competence, so population demographics and geographic distributions of species are closely related to patterns of larval survival and metamorphosis along environmental gradients 3,4. Thus, responses of early life-history stages to the environmental conditions in the larval habitat help to explain and predict the structures of communities in coastal oceans. Understanding environmental influence on life-history bottlenecks is particularly important as climate variables that affect fitness are rapidly changing. Though the list of anthropogenically-influenced climate variables is broad and regionally variable, three of the most important environmental factors to consider are ocean temperature, acidification, and salinity. Broadly, temperature influences physiology of ectotherms, and thermal tolerances largely dictate distributions of marine organisms 5 ; changes in ocean temperature can cause changes in developmental rate and survival that delimit range boundaries of species 6,7. Acidification, or the shift of carbonate chemistry of a system, can affect calcification of animals with carbonate skeletons 8,9 and, thus, will disproportionately affect many essential ecosystem engineers in marine systems such as corals, bivalves,...

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Synthesis research in ecology and environmental science improves understanding, advances theory, identifies research priorities, and supports management strategies by linking data, ideas, and tools. Accelerating environmental challenges increases the need to focus synthesis science on the most pressing questions. To leverage input from the broader research community, we convened a virtual workshop with participants from many countries and disciplines to examine how and where synthesis can address key questions and themes in ecology and environmental science in the coming decade. Seven priority research topics emerged: (1) diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ), (2) human and natural systems, (3) actionable and use-inspired science, (4) scale, (5) generality, (6) complexity and resilience, and (7) predictability. Additionally, two issues regarding the general practice of synthesis emerged: the need for increased participant diversity and inclusive research practices; and increased and improved data flow, access, and skill-building. These topics and practices provide a strategic vision for future synthesis in ecology and environmental science.

The impacts of global change — from shifts in climate to overfishing to land use change — can depend heavily on local abiotic context. Building an understanding of how to downscale global change scenarios to local impacts is often difficult, however, and requires historical data across large gradients of variability. Such data are often not available — particularly in peer reviewed or gray literature. However, these data can sometimes be gleaned from casual records of natural history — field notebooks, data sheet marginalia, course notes, and more. Here, we provide an example of one such approach for the Gulf of Maine, as we seek to understand how environmental context can influence local outcomes of region-wide shifts in subtidal community structure. We explore a decade of hand-drawn algal cover maps around Appledore Island made by Dr. Art Borror while teaching at the Shoals Marine Lab. Appledore’s steep wave exposure gradient — from exposed to the open ocean to fully protected — provides a living laboratory to test interactions between global change and local conditions. We then recreate Borror’s methods two and a half-decades later. We show that overfishing-driven urchin outbreaks in the 1980s were slowed or stopped by wave exposure and benthic topography. Similarly, local variation appears to have curtailed current invasions by filamentous red algae. Last, some formerly dominant kelps have disappeared over the past forty years — an observation verified by subtidal surveys. Global change is altering life in the seas around us. While underutilized, solid natural history observations stand as a key resource for us to begin to understand how global change will translate to the heterogeneous mosaic of life in a future Gulf of Maine and other ecosystems around the world.