We propose a system theoretic approach to select and stabilize the endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model in which the decisions of a population of strategically interacting agents determine the transmission rate. Specifically, the population's agents recurrently revise their choices out of a set of strategies that impact to varying levels the transmission rate. A payoff vector quantifying the incentives provided by a planner for each strategy, after deducting the strategies' intrinsic costs, influences the revision process. An evolutionary dynamics model captures the population's preferences in the revision process by specifying as a function of the payoff vector the rates at which the agents' choices flow toward strategies with higher payoffs. Our main result is a dynamic payoff mechanism that is guaranteed to steer the epidemic variables (via incentives to the population) to the endemic equilibrium with the smallest infectious fraction, subject to cost constraints. We use a Lyapunov function not only to establish convergence but also to obtain an (anytime) upper bound for the peak size of the population's infectious portion.
A recent article that combines normalized epidemic compartmental models and population games put forth a system theoretic approach to capture the coupling between a population's strategic behavior and the course of an epidemic. It introduced a payoff mechanism that governs the population's strategic choices via incentives, leading to the lowest endemic proportion of infectious individuals subject to cost constraints. Under the assumption that the disease death rate is approximately zero, it uses a Lyapunov function to prove convergence and formulate a quasi-convex program to compute an upper bound for the peak size of the population's infectious fraction. In this article, we generalize these results to the case in which the disease death rate is nonnegligible. This generalization brings on additional coupling terms in the normalized compartmental model, leading to a more intricate Lyapunov function and payoff mechanism. Moreover, the associated upper bound can no longer be determined exactly, but it can be computed with arbitrary accuracy by solving a set of convex programs.
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