The credit risk problem is one of the most important issues of modern financial mathematics. Fundamentally it consists in computing the default probability of a company going into debt. The problem can be studied by means of Markov transition models. The generalization of the transition models by means of homogeneous semi-Markov models is presented in this paper. The idea is to consider the credit risk problem as a reliability problem. In a semi-Markov environment it is possible to consider transition probabilities that change as a function of waiting time inside a state. The paper also shows how to apply semi-Markov reliability models in a credit risk environment. In the last section an example of the model is provided. (2000): 60K15, 60K20, 90B25, 91B28
Mathematics Subject Classification
SUMMARYIn this paper we formulate a dynamic model expressing the human life table data by using the firstpassage-time theory for a stochastic process. The model is derived analytically and then is applied to the mortality data in Belgium and France. A stochastic simulation is also performed for the 'health state function' proposed and the related stochastic paths. Furthermore the implications of the proposed model and the results derived for pension funds and option theory are discussed
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