From an analysis of the distributions of measures of transmission rates among hosts, we identify an empirical relationship suggesting that, typically, 20% of the host population contributes at least 80% of the net transmission potential, as measured by the basic reproduction number, R 0 . This is an example of a statistical pattern known as the 20͞80 rule. The rule applies to a variety of disease systems, including vector-borne parasites and sexually transmitted pathogens. The rule implies that control programs targeted at the ''core'' 20% group are potentially highly effective and, conversely, that programs that fail to reach all of this group will be much less effective than expected in reducing levels of infection in the population as a whole.

SummaryBackgroundProgress in malaria control is under threat by wide-scale insecticide resistance in malaria vectors. Two recent vector control products have been developed: a long-lasting insecticidal net that incorporates a synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO) and a long-lasting indoor residual spraying formulation of the insecticide pirimiphos-methyl. We evaluated the effectiveness of PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets versus standard long-lasting insecticidal nets as single interventions and in combination with the indoor residual spraying of pirimiphos-methyl.MethodsWe did a four-group cluster randomised controlled trial using a two-by-two factorial design of 48 clusters derived from 40 villages in Muleba (Kagera, Tanzania). We randomly assigned these clusters using restricted randomisation to four groups: standard long-lasting insecticidal nets, PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets, standard long-lasting insecticidal nets plus indoor residual spraying, or PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets plus indoor residual spraying. Both standard and PBO nets were distributed in 2015. Indoor residual spraying was applied only once in 2015. We masked the inhabitants of each cluster to the type of nets received, as well as field staff who took blood samples. Neither the investigators nor the participants were masked to indoor residual spraying. The primary outcome was the prevalence of malaria infection in children aged 6 months to 14 years assessed by cross-sectional surveys at 4, 9, 16, and 21 months after intervention. The endpoint for assessment of indoor residual spraying was 9 months and PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets was 21 months. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02288637.Findings7184 (68·0%) of 10 560 households were selected for post-intervention survey, and 15 469 (89·0%) of 17 377 eligible children from the four surveys were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Of the 878 households visited in the two indoor residual spraying groups, 827 (94%) had been sprayed. Reported use of long-lasting insecticidal nets, across all groups, was 15 341 (77·3%) of 19 852 residents after 1 year, decreasing to 12 503 (59·2%) of 21 105 in the second year. Malaria infection prevalence after 9 months was lower in the two groups that received PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets than in the two groups that received standard long-lasting insecticidal nets (531 [29%] of 1852 children vs 767 [42%] of 1809; odds ratio [OR] 0·37, 95% CI 0·21–0·65; p=0·0011). At the same timepoint, malaria prevalence in the two groups that received indoor residual spraying was lower than in groups that did not receive indoor residual spraying (508 [28%] of 1846 children vs 790 [44%] of 1815; OR 0·33, 95% CI 0·19–0·55; p<0·0001) and there was evidence of an interaction between PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying (OR 2·43, 95% CI 1·19–4·97; p=0·0158), indicating redundancy when combined. The PBO long-lasting insecticidal net effect was sustained after 21 months with a lower malaria prevalence tha...

The antimalarial efficacy of the most important vector control interventions—long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS)—primarily protect against mosquitoes’ biting people when they are in bed and indoors. Mosquito bites taken outside of these times contribute to residual transmission which determines the maximum effectiveness of current malaria prevention. The likelihood mosquitoes feed outside the time of day when LLINs and IRS can protect people is poorly understood, and the proportion of bites received outdoors may be higher after prolonged vector control. A systematic review of mosquito and human behavior is used to quantify and estimate the public health impact of outdoor biting across Africa. On average 79% of bites by the major malaria vectors occur during the time when people are in bed. This estimate is substantially lower than previous predictions, with results suggesting a nearly 10% lower proportion of bites taken at the time when people are beneath LLINs since the year 2000. Across Africa, this higher outdoor transmission is predicted to result in an estimated 10.6 million additional malaria cases annually if universal LLIN and IRS coverage was achieved. Higher outdoor biting diminishes the cases of malaria averted by vector control. This reduction in LLIN effectiveness appears to be exacerbated in areas where mosquito populations are resistant to insecticides used in bed nets, but no association was found between physiological resistance and outdoor biting. Substantial spatial heterogeneity in mosquito biting behavior between communities could contribute to differences in effectiveness of malaria control across Africa.

Background: Mosquito sampling methods are essential for monitoring and evaluating malaria vector control interventions. In urban Dar es Salaam, human landing catch (HLC) is the only method sufficiently sensitive for monitoring malaria-transmitting Anopheles. HLC is labour intensive, cumbersome, hazardous, and requires such intense supervision that is difficulty to sustain on large scales.

How often insecticide resistance mutations arise in natural insect populations is a fundamental question for understanding the evolution of resistance and also for modeling its spread. Moreover, the development of resistance is regarded as a favored model to study the molecular evolution of adaptive traits. In the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae two point mutations (L1014F and L1014S) in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene, that confer knockdown resistance (kdr) to DDT and pyrethroid insecticides, have been described. In order to determine whether resistance alleles result from single or multiple mutation events, genotyping of the kdr locus and partial sequencing of the upstream intron-1 was performed on a total of 288 A. gambiae S-form collected from 28 localities in 15 countries. Knockdown resistance alleles were found to be widespread in West Africa with co-occurrence of both 1014S and 1014F in West-Central localities. Differences in intron-1 haplotype composition suggest that kdr alleles may have arisen from at least four independent mutation events. Neutrality tests provided evidence for a selective sweep acting on this genomic region, particularly in West Africa. The frequency and distribution of these kdr haplotypes varied geographically, being influenced by an interplay between different mutational occurrences, gene flow and local selection. This has important practical implications for the management and sustainability of malaria vector control programs.

Delayed and immediate oocyst rates; parous rates and sporozoite rates were obtained in Anopheles gambiae Giles, A. arabiensis Patten and A. funestus Giles from two villages in the Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania during the wet season of 1991. Collection methods included light trap, indoor resting collection and nets with holes cut in their side. Mosquito survival estimates from parous rates obtained from light trap collections, were compared with estimates from capture-recapture experiments and from that obtained during a population decline. Methods of estimating the proportion of feeds infectious to mosquitoes, K, were also compared. This proportion varied between villages and species and was highest in the village with the greatest proportion of A. gambiae. We propose that absolute estimates of K should be obtained by determining the immediate oocyst rate and measuring the parous rate using the same host seeking mosquitoes. This estimate was only available from one village and ranged from 1.9% for A. gambiae s.l. to 3.4% for A.funestus.

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The possibility of density dependent feeding success in the African malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae Giles (sensu lato) and A. funestus Giles was investigated by examining the gonotrophic status of mosquitoes from 423 collections made in a Tanzanian village. Up to 500 mosquitoes were caught in any single 35 minute indoor resting collection. Estimates of the total numbers of mosquitoes resting were made by removal sampling. These indicated that the efficiency of resting collections decreased with increasing mosquito population. Of 1904 mosquito blood meals tested by ELISA, 95% were of human origin. There was no decrease in the proportion of mosquitoes fully fed at high population densities and the only demonstrable avoiding action by hosts in response to high densities of mosquitoes was the increased use of bednets during the wet season. The late biting cycle of these mosquitoes precludes many other density-dependent host defence mechanisms because the hosts are asleep at the time of attack. African malaria vectors have evolved with man and perhaps their evasion of density-dependent host responses has reinforced their preference for human blood.