No abstract

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://store.usgs.gov/.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. AbstractWildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the Western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Some landslides mobilize into flows, while others slide and deposit material immediately down slope. An index based on initial dry density and fine-grained content of soil predicted failure mode of 96 landslide initiation sites in Oregon and Colorado with 79% accuracy. These material properties can be used to identify potential sources for debris flows and for slides. Field data suggest that loose soils can evolve from dense soils that dilate upon shearing. The method presented herein to predict failure mode is most applicable for shallow (depth <5m), wellgraded soils (coefficient of uniformity >8), with few to moderate fines (fine-grained content <18%), and with liquid limits <40.