The current study examined to what extent a valid instrument that predicts repeat victimization can be based on a victim's prior police contacts. Police records between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved for a sample of 68,229 victims. The data was split into a training set ( n = 34,224) and a test set ( n = 34,005). Using logistic regression analyses in the training set, three models were developed linking prior police contacts to repeat victimization. The predictive validity was assessed in the test set. Results indicated that (a) prior police contacts as victims, suspects and witnesses were associated with an elevated risk of repeat victimization and (b) the model correctly classified a majority of both repeat victims and non-repeat victims across various cut-off points. Findings demonstrated moderate to acceptable predictive validity, thereby suggesting that there is considerable room for improvement.

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Following the EU Victim Directive, Dutch police officers are obliged to assess a victim’s vulnerability to repeat victimization. This study explored the utility of unstructured police information for the prediction of repeat victimization, as well as its incremental value over and above structured police information. Police records over a period of 6 years were retrieved for a sample of 116,680 victims. Unstructured information was transformed into numeric features using count-vector and TF/IDF methods. Classification models were built using decision tree and random forest models. AUC values indicate that a combination of structured and unstructured police information could be used to correctly classify a majority of repeat and non-repeat victims.

The present study investigated the joint impact of co-occupants and codefendants criminal behavior on adolescent criminal behavior using official Dutch police records. Co-occupant and co-defendant criminal behavior were used as proxies for family and peer criminal behavior, respectively. Data spanning 8 years (2010–2017) were analyzed from 56,802 adolescents, their co-occupants and co-defendants. Cross-lagged analyses were used to investigate prospective effects of co-occupant and co-defendant delinquency on adolescent delinquency. For males, prospective effects were found of co-defendant on adolescent delinquency violent offences, violent property offences, and nonviolent property offences. For females, prospective effects of co-defendants’ delinquency were found for nonviolent property offences. Our findings underscore that having co-defendants with delinquent behavior is an important risk factor for delinquent activities in adolescence.

In this longitudinal study, the authors investigated short-term criminal pathways of children and early adolescents starting under the age of 14 years and the extent to which characteristics of the 1st crime influenced criminal pathways. Participants were 387 juvenile offenders with a mean age of 12.1 years (SD = 2.05 years). The authors followed all participants in the police systems for 2 years to get insight into the crimes that they committed. Then, 2 years after the 1st police contact, 46.5% of these offenders were still considered 1st offenders, and 53.5% had become recidivists. Most of the children began their criminal pathway with less serious covert crimes. Further analyses showed that when the 1st crime was a serious overt crime, the risk of recidivism within 1 year increased. The likelihood of committing a serious overt crime increased with age. The results supported the authors' hypotheses in that juvenile offenders who committed both overt and covert delinquent acts had the highest rates of offense, were more aggressive, and committed more serious offenses. Furthermore, children who committed only overt crimes developed even more serious criminal pathways.