[1] The devastating 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami stressed the need for assessing tsunami hazard in vulnerable coastal areas. Numerical modeling is but one important tool for understanding past tsunami events and simulating future ones. Here we present a robust simulation of the event, which explains the large runups and destruction observed in coastal Thailand and identifies areas vulnerable to future tsunamis, or safer for reconstruction. To do so, we use an accurate tsunami source, which was iteratively calibrated in earlier work to explain the large-scale tsunami features, and apply it over a computational domain with a finer grid and more accurate coastal bathymetry in Thailand.Computations are performed with a well-validated numerical model based on fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq equations (FUNWAVE) that adequately models the physics of tsunami propagation and runup, including dissipation caused by bottom friction and wave breaking. Simulated runups in Thailand reproduce field observations with a surprising degree of accuracy, as well as their high degree of along-coast variation: a 92% correlation is found between (58) runup observations and computations, while the model explains 85% of the observed variance; overall, the RMS error is approximately 1 m or 17% of the mean observed runup value (skill of the simulation). Because we did not use runup observations to calibrate our coseismic tsunami source, these results are robust, and thus provide a uniquely accurate synoptic prediction of tsunami impact along the Andaman coast of Thailand, including those areas where no observations were made.
The December 26, 2004 tsunami was perhaps the most devastating tsunami in recorded history, causing over 200,000 fatalities and widespread destruction in countries bordering the Indian Ocean. It was generated by the third largest earthquake on record ͑M w = 9.1-9.3͒ and was a truly global event, with significant wave action felt around the world. Many measurements of this event were made with seismometers, tide gauges, global positioning system stations, and a few satellite overpasses. There were numerous eyewitness observations and video digital recordings of coastal tsunami impact, as well as subsequent coastal field surveys of runup and flooding. A few ship-based expeditions also took place in the months following the event, to measure and map seafloor disturbances in the epicenter area. Based on these various data sets, recent seismic analysis estimates of rupture propagation speed, and other seismological and geological constraints, we develop a calibrated tsunami source, in terms of coseismic seafloor displacement and rupture timing along 1,200 km of the Andaman-Sunda trench. This source is used to build a numerical model of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal flooding for the December 26, 2004 event. Frequency dispersion effects having been identified in the deep water tsunami wavetrain, we simulate tsunami propagation and coastal impact with a fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq model ͑FUNWAVE͒. The tsunami source is specified in this model as a series of discrete, properly parameterized, dislocation source segments ͓Okada, 1985, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75͑4͒, 1135-1154͔, triggered in a time sequence spanning about 1,200 s. ETOPO2's bottom bathymetry and land topography are specified in the modeled ocean basin, supplemented by more accurate and denser data in selected coastal areas ͑e.g., Thailand͒. A 1 min grid is used for tsunami simulations over the Indian Ocean basin, which is fine enough to model tsunami generation and propagation to nearshore areas. Surface elevations simulated in the model agree well, in both amplitude and timing, with measurements at tide gauges, one satellite transect, and ranges of runup values. These results validate our tsunami source and simulations of the December 26, 2004 event and indicate these can be used to conduct more detailed case studies, for specific coastal areas. In fact, part of the development of our proposed source already benefitted from such regional simulations performed on a finer grid ͑15 s͒, as part of a Thailand case study, in which higher frequency waves could be modeled ͑Ioualalen et al. 2006, J. Geophys. Res., in press͒. Finally, by running a non-dispersive version of FUNWAVE, we estimate dispersive effects on maximum deep water elevations to be more than 20% in some areas. We believe that work such as this, in which we achieve a better understanding through modeling of the catastrophic December 26, 2004 event, will help the scientific community better predict and mitigate any such future disaster. This will be achieved through a comb...
[1] Khao Lak, SW Thailand was severely affected by the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Here we present reconstructions of its coastal impact in this area. These are based on (1) eyewitness reports alone and (2) eyewitness reports supported by videos and photos of the tsunami and the damage it caused, field measurements, and satellite imagery. On the basis of eyewitness reports, we estimated that the sea began retreating at 1000 local time (LT) and, based also on photos, that the tsunami arrived at 1026-1029 LT. On the basis of videos of the tsunami, we estimated an offshore wave direction of 083 ± 3°and on the basis of the paths by which eyewitnesses were carried, we estimated an onshore direction of 088 ± 6°. On the basis of videos, we calculated that the velocity of the wavefront on its final approach was 33 ± 4 km/h. We obtained tsunami heights of 7.3 ± 0.8 m (relative to ground level) on the basis of eyewitness reports and 8.0 ± 0.6 m (relative to mean sea level) on the basis of field and photographic data. On the basis of eyewitness reports and photos, we concluded that Khao Lak experienced at least two main waves with a period >40 min. From eyewitness reports and satellite imagery, we measured maximum inundation 0.5 km in the southern part of the area, which is confined by a steeply sloping hinterland, and 1.5 km in the more gently sloping northern part. Comparison between these reconstructions supports the reliability of eyewitness reports as a source of quantitative data, and comparison with the numerical simulation by Ioualalen et al. (2007) supports the validity of the simulation.
Steady two-dimensional flows past a parabolic obstacle lying on the free surface in water of finite depth are considered. The fluid is treated as inviscid and incompressible and the flow is assumed to be irrotational. Gravity is included in the free-surface condition. The problem is solved numerically by using boundary integral equation techniques. It is shown that there are solutions for which the flow is supercritical both upstream and downstream and others for which the flow is subcritical both upstream and downstream. These flows have continuous tangents at both ends of the obstacle at which separation occurs. For supercritical flows, there are up to three solutions corresponding to the same value of the Froude number when the obstacle is concave and up to two solutions when the obstacle is convex. For subcritical flows, there are solutions with waves behind the obstacle. As the Froude number decreases, these waves become steeper and the numerical calculations suggest that they, ultimately, reach limiting configurations with a sharp crest forming a 120° angle.
Abstract. The 26 December 2004Indian Ocean tsunami damaged severely most of the Gulf of Bengal's coastal areas, but the coast of Bangladesh which stands at the edge of an extraordinarily extended continental shelf. This latter feature has been built through huge discharges of river sediments along the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers. As a result of this enormous discharge, another interesting feature of the area is the deep underwater Canyon, connected with the estuaries, running NE-SW from 25 km off the coast towards the continental slope.We investigate here how these two geological features may have modified/perturbed the Indian ocean tsunami propagation and impact on the Coast of Bangladesh. For that purpose we have realized an ensemble of numerical simulations based on Funwave Boussinesq numerical model and a validated coseismic source. It is found, at first order, that the extended shallow bathymetric profile of the continental shelf plays a key role in flattening the waveform through a defocussing process while the Canyon delays the process. The wave evolution seems to be related at first order to the bathymetric profile rather than to dynamical processes like nonlinearity, dispersion or bottom friction.
In previous work, we investigated two-dimensional steady gravity-capillary waves generated by a localized pressure distribution moving with constant speed U in water of finite depth h . Localized solitary waves can only exist in subcritical flows where the Froude number F = U/(gh) 1/2 < 1 , and were found using a combination of numerical simulations of the fully nonlinear inviscid, irrotational equations, and analytically from a weakly nonlinear long-wave model, the steady forced Korteweg-de Vries equation. The solution branches depended on three parameters, the Froude number, F < 1 , the Bond number, τ > 1/3 , and the magnitude and sign of the pressure distribution, ǫ . In this paper, we examine the two-dimensional stability of these waves using numerical simulations of the fully nonlinear unsteady equations. The results are favourably compared with analogous numerical solutions of the unsteady forced Korteweg-de Vries equation. We find that, for ǫ > 0 , the small-amplitude steady depression wave is stable whereas the large-amplitude steady depression wave is unstable. The depression wave with a dimple at its crest, which occurs only when ǫ < 0 is unstable, but the small-amplitude elevation wave with ǫ < 0 is stable.
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