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Abstract:One of the elements of company's evaluation is an analysis of bankruptcy risk metrics. In this study, the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions generated by EBITDA-based and cash flow-based liabilities-coverage ratios is evaluated within a sample of data from the Polish market. The study is based on a sample of 92 companies, in which case a bankruptcy filing was announced in a period between the beginning of 2009 and the end of the first half of 2016. The statistical analysis has confirmed the usefulness of the investigated liabilities-coverage ratios. Even though the sample covers wide variety of businesses, the logit models with only one ratio used as an explanatory variable are capable of identifying bankrupt firms (with one-period-ahead forecast horizon) in about 66-76% of cases. However, this research has not confirmed the supremacy of operating cash flows over EBITDA in predicting financial distress.

ABSTRACT

Empirical research shows that corporate financial results (measured by sales growth, profitability, earnings growth, leverage, etc.) are characterized by the long-term reversion toward the levels average for the whole economy. In the case of sales growth this means that companies which in a given year show above-average growth in the following periods express the tendency to show slower pace of this growth and companies which in a given year show below-average growth in the following periods express the tendency to show faster pace of growth. In the paper we explore the reversion toward the mean of the sales growth of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period of 2001-2009. The research confirmed the strong tendency of sales growth to revert toward the mean.