Objective
To pilot a clinical information service for general practitioners.
Methods
A representative sample of 31 GPs was invited to submit clinical questions to a local academic department of general practice. Their views on the service and the usefulness of the information were obtained by telephone interview.
Results
Over one month, nine GPs (29% of the sample, 45% of those stating an interest), submitted 20 enquiries comprising 45 discrete clinical questions. The median time to search for evidence, appraise it and write answers to each enquiry was 2.5 hours (range, 1.0–7.4 hours). The median interval between receipt of questions and dispatch of answers was 3 days (range, 1–12 days).
Conclusions
The GPs found the answers useful in clinical decision making; in four out of 20 cases patient management was altered.
A more robust understanding of the implications of future risks and opportunities could improve strategic decision making at different levels. Single sector analyses are likely to simplify key interactions across domains which may limit their ability to identify mechanisms to mitigate risks or harness opportunities. This paper describes an integrated suite of a dozen global and national models for exploring Australia's future through quantitative scenario analysis, GNOME.3 (the Global and National Outlooks for Materials, Economy, Environment & Energy). The GNOME.3 suite builds on the integrated suite used in the first CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) National Outlook (Hatfield-Dodds, Adams, et al. (2015)), expanding both its robustness and depth. Expanded modelling capability in the GNOME.3 includes: a new computable general equilibrium model (GTAP-ME.3); a global and local learning (GALLM) model of transport, GALLM-T; improvements to CSIRO's global electricity model GALLM-E; and a global land use and agricultural model, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), modified to separately identify Australia (GLOBIOM-Aus). GNOME.3 also provides improved ability to analyse pathways for Australia's future energy system through a new Australian energy model, AUS-TIMES. Development of computer scripts to automate interactions across core components of the modelling suite improves the transparency and efficiency of scenario analysis. This multi-model framework is the most comprehensive scenario capability for Australia to date that connects and integrates across the three interconnected subsystems: economic-social, environmental earth systems, and food-energy-water nexus. There are several areas-for example, assessing markets for ecosystem services, exploring the complexities of water use, and exploring potential shifts in comparative advantage-where analysis can only be obtained by cross-sector integration associated with the comprehensive model-linking approach possible with GNOME.3 and used in the Australian National Outlooks. We describe the system and identify areas for further development and application.
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