SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

The protective effect of fruit and vegetables against cancer has been related to their high antioxidant content. However, results from intervention trials have not been conclusive on the protective effect of antioxidant supplementation. In a randomized placebo-controlled trial we investigated the effect of dietary supplementation with antioxidants on a biomarker of oxidative DNA damage with mechanistic relation to carcinogenesis. One hundred forty-two smoking men aged 35-65 y were randomly assigned to one of the following seven treatments for 2 mo: 100 mg D-alpha-tocopheryl acetate plus 250 mg slow-release ascorbic acid twice a day (n = 20), 100 mg D-alpha-tocopheryl acetate twice a day (n = 20), 250 mg ascorbic acid twice a day (n = 21), 250 mg slow-release ascorbic acid twice a day (n = 21), 30 mg coenzyme Q10 in oil three times a day (n = 20), 30 mg coenzyme Q10 as granulate three times a day (n = 20), or placebo twice a day (n = 20). The trial outcome was the urinary excretion rate of 8-oxo-7, 8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG)-a repair product of oxidative DNA damage. Two months of supplementation did not result in significant changes in the urinary excretion rate of 8-oxodG in any group. The lack of effect of antioxidant supplementation on the excretion rate of 8-oxodG, despite substantial increases in plasma antioxidant concentrations, agrees with the results from recent large intervention studies with cancer as an endpoint. The cancer-protective effect of fruit and vegetables seems to rely not on the effect of single antioxidants but rather on other anticarcinogenic compounds or on a concerted action of several micronutrients present in these foods.

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It has been postulated that platelet function plays an important role in the initiation of atherosclerosis. Currently there are no definitive data on the longer-term effects of regular physical exercise on platelet function in humans. We assessed the influence of regular moderate-intensity physical exercise (brisk walking to slow jogging) on platelet aggregation in a population-based sample of middle-aged, overweight, mildly hypertensive men in eastern Finland. In this controlled study, we evaluated the net effect of exercise on platelet aggregation by studying changes in optical density and ATP release in platelet-rich plasma. A significant inhibition of secondary platelet aggregation from 27% to 36% was observed in the men taking regular exercise. These findings give new insight into the possible protective effects of exercise against the risk of ischemic heart disease. Circulation 74, No. 5, 939-944, 1986. INTERACTIONS among platelets, lipoproteins, and arterial vessel wall have been postulated to be centrally involved in the development of atherosclerosis. Increased low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, causing endothelial injury, together with an increased rate of LDL infiltration promote platelet aggregation. The ensuing smooth muscle cell proliferation and cholesterol accumulation together with the secretion of connective tissue matrix finally initiate the formation of atherosclerotic plaque.1 Furthermore, there is evidence of thrombosis in coronary arteries both in myocardial infarction2 and sudden cardiac ischemic death,3 possibly caused by continuous arterial microemboli.'The initial phase of thrombosis is thrombocyte aggregation, preceded by the activation of platelets.5 An increased activation of platelets has been observed in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) during physical exercise,6'7 although not consistently. Vol. 74, No. 5, November 1986 porarily increased platelet aggregation has been observed in healthy young men after both short-term9 and long-terml' strenuous running exercise. At present, no experimental data are available on the longer-term effects of physical training on platelet aggregability in humans. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of regular low-intensity physical exercise on risk factors for IHD and on platelet function in vitro. Our results demonstrate that exercise training can lower the sensitivity of platelets to the action of agonist, a potentially beneficial effect.

These pooled results provide strong evidence that pravastatin reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with atherosclerotic disease and mildly to moderately elevated lipid levels. The benefit for reducing myocardial infarction is evident in older and younger patients, men and women, and patients with and without histories of hypertension and prior infarction.