Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

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The relationship between methane emissions and salinity is not well understood in tidal marshes, leading to uncertainty about the net effect of marsh conservation and restoration on greenhouse gas balance. We used published and unpublished field data to investigate the relationships between tidal marsh methane emissions, salinity, and porewater concentrations of methane and sulfate, then used these relationships to consider the balance between methane emissions and soil carbon sequestration. Polyhaline tidal marshes (salinity >18) had significantly lower methane emissions (mean ± sd=1±2 gm −2 yr −1) than other marshes, and can be expected to decrease radiative forcing when created or restored. There was no significant difference in methane emissions from fresh (salinity=0-0.5) and mesohaline (5-18) marshes (42±76 and 16±11 gm −2 yr −1, respectively), while oligohaline (0.5-5) marshes had the highest and most variable methane emissions (150±221 gm −2 yr −1). Annual methane emissions were modeled using a linear fit of salinity against log-transformed methane flux ( logðCH 4 Þ ¼ À0:056 Â salinity þ 1:38; r 2 = 0 . 5 2 ; p < 0.0001). Managers interested in using marshes as greenhouse gas sinks can assume negligible methane emissions in polyhaline systems, but need to estimate or monitor methane emissions in lower-salinity marshes.

For decades, ecosystem scientists have used global warming potentials (GWPs) to compare the radiative forcing of various greenhouse gases to determine if ecosystems have a net warming or cooling effect on climate. On a conceptual basis, the continued use of GWPs by the ecological community may be untenable because the use of GWPs requires the implicit assumption that greenhouse gas emissions occur as a single pulse; this assumption is rarely justified in ecosystem studies. We present two alternate metrics-the sustained-flux global warming potential (SGWP, for gas emissions) and the sustained-flux global cooling potential (SGCP, for gas uptake)-for use when gas fluxes persist over time. The SGWP is generally larger than the GWP (by up to $40%) for both methane and nitrous oxide emissions, creating situations where the GWP and SGWP metrics could provide opposing interpretations about the climatic role of an ecosystem. Further, there is an asymmetry in methane and nitrous oxide dynamics between persistent emission and uptake situations, producing very different values for the SGWP vs. SGCP and leading to the conclusion that ecosystems that take up these gases are very effective at reducing radiative forcing. Although the new metrics are more realistic than the GWP for ecosystem fluxes, we further argue that even these metrics may be insufficient in the context of trying to understand the lifetime climatic role of an ecosystem. A dynamic modeling approach that has the flexibility to account for temporally variable rates of greenhouse gas exchange, and is not limited by a fixed time frame, may be more informative than the SGWP, SGCP, or GWP. Ultimately, we hope this article will stimulate discussion within the ecosystem science community about the most appropriate way(s) of assessing the role of ecosystems as regulators of global climate.

Increased carbon storage in ecosystems due to elevated CO2 may help stabilize atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and slow global warming. Many field studies have found that elevated CO 2 leads to higher carbon assimilation by plants, and others suggest that this can lead to higher carbon storage in soils, the largest and most stable terrestrial carbon pool. Here we show that 6 years of experimental CO 2 doubling reduced soil carbon in a scrub-oak ecosystem despite higher plant growth, offsetting Ϸ52% of the additional carbon that had accumulated at elevated CO 2 in aboveground and coarse root biomass. The decline in soil carbon was driven by changes in soil microbial composition and activity. Soils exposed to elevated CO 2 had higher relative abundances of fungi and higher activities of a soil carbondegrading enzyme, which led to more rapid rates of soil organic matter degradation than soils exposed to ambient CO 2. The isotopic composition of microbial fatty acids confirmed that elevated CO 2 increased microbial utilization of soil organic matter. These results show how elevated CO 2, by altering soil microbial communities, can cause a potential carbon sink to become a carbon source.carbon cycling ͉ global change ͉ microbes ͉ priming effect

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority.Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

U.S. land management can contribute 1.2 Pg CO2e year−1 of greenhouse gas mitigation, 76% of which costs USD 50 Mg CO2e−1 or less.