Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the twenty-first century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic basin because of changes in atmospheric stability, surface roughness, and/or baroclinicity. Here we identify patterns of wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic and their likely causal mechanisms, particularly those associated with sea ice loss. Output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) was analyzed for the recent past (primarily 1971–2000) and future (2071–2100). Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 95th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by up to 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing surface roughness and lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (exceeding 20°C warmer in the central Arctic in autumn and winter), as well as local changes in the storm track. The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal and navigational hazards. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with reduction of sea ice, rising sea level, and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion.

Key Points:Surface melt anomalies correspond with anomalies in energy advection and the local energy balance.Atmospheric patterns that enhance surface melt have increased in frequency in the last 36 years.Accelerating Greenland melt partially due to synoptic changes, but mostly to Arctic warming.

Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs.

Abstract. Surface albedo is a key variable controlling solar radiation absorbed at the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface and, thus, meltwater production. Recent decline in surface albedo over the GrIS has been linked to enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, earlier snowmelt, and amplified meltalbedo feedback from atmospheric warming. However, the importance of distinct surface types on ablation area albedo and meltwater production is still relatively unknown. In this study, we analyze albedo and ablation rates using in situ and remotely sensed data. Observations include (1) a new highquality in situ spectral albedo data set collected with an Analytical Spectral Devices Inc. spectroradiometer measuring at 325-1075 nm along a 1.25 km transect during 3 days in June 2013; (2) broadband albedo at two automatic weather stations; and (3) daily MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo (MOD10A1) between 31 May and 30 August 2012 and 2013. We find that seasonal ablation area albedos in 2013 have a bimodal distribution, with snow and ice facies characterizing the two peaks. Our results show that a shift from a distribution dominated by high to low albedos corresponds to an observed melt rate increase of 51.5 % (between 10-14 July and 20-24 July 2013). In contrast, melt rate variability caused by albedo changes before and after this shift was much lower and varied between ∼ 10 and 30 % in the melting season. Ablation area albedos in 2012 exhibited a more complex multimodal distribution, reflecting a transition from light to dark-dominated surface, as well as sensitivity to the so called "dark-band" region in southwest Greenland. In addition to a darkening surface from ice crystal growth, our findings demonstrate that seasonal changes in GrIS ablation area albedos are controlled by changes in the fractional coverage of snow, bare ice, and impurity-rich surface types. Thus, seasonal variability in ablation area albedos appears to be regulated primarily as a function of bare ice expansion at the expense of snow, surface meltwater ponding, and melting of outcropped ice layers enriched with mineral materials, enPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. S. E. Moustafa et al.: Multi-modal albedo distributions in the ablation areaabling dust and impurities to accumulate. As climate change continues in the Arctic region, understanding the seasonal evolution of ice sheet surface types in Greenland's ablation area is critical to improve projections of mass loss contributions to sea level rise.