The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of --10 Gpc yr 3 3 1 , consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is = z 0.8 for WFIRST, = z 0.25 for LSST, and = z 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

Context. The current model of planet formation lacks a good understanding of the growth of dust particles inside the protoplanetary disk beyond mm sizes. A similar collisional regime exists in dense planetary rings. In order to investigate the low-velocity collisions between this type of particles, the NanoRocks experiment was flown on the International Space Station (ISS) between September 2014 and March 2016. We present the results of this experiment. Aims. The objectives of our data analysis are the quantification of the damping of energy in systems of multiple particles in the 0.1 to 1 mm size range while they are in the bouncing regime, and the study of the formation of clusters through sticking collisions between particles. Methods. We developed statistical methods for the analysis of the large quantity of collision data collected by the experiment. We measured the average motion of particles, the moment of clustering, and the cluster size formed. In addition, we ran simple numerical simulations in order to validate our measurements. Results. We computed the average coefficient of restitution (COR) of collisions and find values ranging from 0.55 for systems including a population of fine grains to 0.94 for systems of denser particles. We also measured the sticking threshold velocities and find values around 1 cm/s, consistent with the current dust collision models based on independently collected experimental data. Conclusions. Our findings have the following implications that can be useful for the simulation of particles in PPDs and planetary rings: (1) The average COR of collisions between same-sized free-floating particles at low speeds (< 2 cm/s) is not dependent on the collision velocity; (2) The simplified approach of using a constant COR value will accurately reproduce the average behavior of a particle system during collisional cooling; (3) At speeds below 5 mm/s, the influence of particle rotation becomes apparent on the collision behavior; (4) Current dust collision models predicting sticking thresholds are robust.

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We present the results of a series of laboratory low-speed impacts (< 4 m s−1) of centimeter-sized spherical projectiles into simulated dry and icy regolith samples. The target material was comprised of JSC-1 (Johnson Space Center) lunar simulant grains in the size range 100–250 μm, mixed with similar-sized water ice grains. Impacts were performed under vacuum, either at room temperature for JSC-1 samples or at cryogenic temperatures (<150 K) for icy mixtures. We measured the ejecta masses from a collection plate and impact crater dimensions from post-impact crater photographs. We find that both the ejecta masses and crater diameters followed trends predicted by established scaling laws, albeit with different fitting parameters, and we were able to fit a strength regime π scaling to our measured crater diameters. The water ice in our target material took two forms: grains mixed with the regolith grains and frost from air condensation coating regolith grains. In both cases, the presence of water ice in the sample led to lower ejected masses and smaller crater sizes. In addition, our measured crater sizes were several orders of magnitude larger than expected for impacts into solid rock or water ice. Using our measured scaling parameters, we applied our findings to a planetary context for the study of secondary craters on icy moons, as well as eroding collisions occurring in Saturn’s rings. We found that the deviation of our measurements from solid targets and from commonly used scaling parameters allowed us to reconcile our measurements with the models in both cases.