Purpose : To predict the ongoing likelihood of natural conception, when a couple has ceased to try to conceive by assisted conception. Methods : A postal questionnaire survey obtained information on further attempts to conceive and have a baby, either without treatment or by treatment elsewhere. Results : From a response rate of 44%, there were 116 couples who fulfilled the study criteria. The data presented are based on this group. The overall likelihood of conception was 18%. Cumulative results were analysed up to 3 years following treatment. Univariate analysis showed that likelihood of conception was affected by infertility diagnosis (p = 0.024), woman's age (>38 years; p < 0.005) (negatively) and duration of infertility (<3 years; p < 0.005) (positively), while primary infertility did not. Effects of diagnosis and infertility duration were confirmed by multivariable analysis, controlling for age and primary infertility. These latter variables had no independent effect. Conclusion : The likelihood of natural conception following IVF treatment was determined by duration of infertility and diagnosis; tubal disease in particular was associated with a very poor likelihood of natural conception.

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