In September 1991, the U. S. Geological Survey began continuous operation of two permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) sites near the Hayward fault. We use two and one half years of data from an 8‐km baseline to investigate GPS processing strategies, errors in the time and frequency domains, and the uncertainties of rates of change calculated from such data. Experiments with session lengths show that at least 6 hours of data should be used to obtain a precision of 2 to 4 mm. Experiments with broadcast and improved orbits show that the broadcast orbit is sufficient for this short baseline. Single‐frequency solutions have larger rms scatter; for scenarios made mostly in daylight, ionospheric delay systematically shortens the baseline length by 2.4 parts per million for L1 and 4.0 parts per million for L2. For the dual‐frequency results, the rms scatter about the best‐fitting straight line is 2.1 mm for baseline length, 2.2 mm for north, 2.9 mm for east, and 11.2 mm for vertical. For Winton relative to Chabot, the rates of change are −0.6±0.1 mm/yr in length, 2.8±0.1 mm/yr in north, −8.1±0.2 mm/yr in east, and −8.1±0.6 mm/yr in vertical. The baseline rate of change is consistent with right‐lateral shear across the Hayward fault but is not consistent with the −3.5 mm/yr predicted by the model of Lienkaemper et al. (1991). The large westward and downward motion of Winton relative to Chabot may be due to monument instability. Power spectra appear white at high frequencies; the estimated standard deviations for periods shorter than 5 days are 1.2 mm for length and north, 1.9 mm for east, and 5.5 mm for vertical. Power spectral density increases only slightly as frequency decreases from 0.2 to 0.03 cycle per day, and there is no distinct corner. In particular, no characteristic 1/ƒ2 signature of random walk monument noise emerges from the white noise. Estimated autocorrelations for length, north, east, and vertical fall to about 0.1 for lag times shorter than 10 days and fluctuate about zero for lag times longer than about 25 days. Because the time series is short, it is possible that random walk monument noise exists but is undetectable in the estimated power spectral density and autocorrelation functions. We use the estimated full covariance matrix to calculate the standard deviations of the baseline rate of change for various sampling schemes. The theoretical standard deviation of dL/dt determined from 1 year of daily observations is 0.28 times that determined from 1 year of annual observations. We can obtain a similar uncertainty from 2 years of measurements made every 30 days and better results from 5 years of annual measurements. However, daily measurements allow the detection and correction of offsets that sometimes occur with equipment or firmware changes.

Predictive models used to assess the magnitude of coseismic landslide strain accumulation in response to earthquake ground shaking typically consider slope-parallel ground accelerations only and ignore both the influence of coseismic slope-normal ground accelerations and the phase relationship between dynamic slope-normal and slope-parallel accelerations. We present results of a laboratory study designed to assess the significance of the phase offset between slope-normal and slope-parallel cyclic stresses on the generation of coseismic landslide displacements. Using a dynamic back-pressured shearbox that is capable of simulating variably phased slope-normal and slope-parallel dynamic loads, we subjected sediment samples to a range of dynamic loading scenarios indicative of earthquake-induced ground shaking. We detail the variations in strain accumulation observed when slope-normal and slope-parallel stresses occur independently and simultaneously, both in and out of phase, using a range of dynamic stress amplitudes. Our results show that the instantaneous phasing of dynamic stresses is critical in determining the amount of coseismic landslide displacement, which may vary by up to an order of magnitude based solely on wave-phasing effects. Instantaneous strain rate is an exponential function of the distance normal to the Mohr Coulomb failure envelope in plots of shear stress against normal effective stress. This distance is strongly controlled by the phase offset between dynamic normal and shear stresses. Our results demonstrate that conditions considered by conventional coseismic slope stability models can either overestimate or underestimate earthquake-induced landslide displacement by up to an order of magnitude. This has important implications for accurate assessment of coseismic landslide hazard.

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