Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted schools to close in 2020, and with its negative impact on the quality of learning, the conversation shifts to the re-opening scenarios. In this study, we coupled a COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM) with social contact probabilities from pre-pandemic estimates. We then simulated school re-opening and vaccination scenarios in Quezon City, Philippines using our ABM. Our toy simulations suggest that the city could already re-open schools with 50% vaccination coverage. However, we suggest that students shall be vaccinated first, mask-wearing and physical distance shall be strictly observed, and schools shall only be re-opened by 25% as a precaution. Policymakers may take insights from the study.
Abstract. COVID-19 vaccines are rolling out in the Philippines but the supply remains limited; there is a need to optimize the distribution. In this study, we developed a COVID-19 agent-based model for Quezon City, a COVID-19 hotspot in the country. This model, in conjunction with a multi-objective linear programming model for equitable vaccine distribution, was then used to simulate four vaccination scenarios. Experiments were conducted with the front-line workers always added to the groups: mobile workers, elderly and low-income. Main results are: prioritizing the mobile workers minimizes infections the most (by 4.34%), while prioritizing the low-income groups minimizes deaths the most (by 1.93%). These results demonstrate that protecting the population with the most interactions (mobile workers) effectively reduces future infections. On the other hand, protecting the most vulnerable population (low income and elderly) decreases the likelihood of death. These results may guide the policy-makers in Quezon City.
BackgroundSchools have been closed in the Philippines since March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September 2021, the government already allowed a pilot run of limited in-person classes in low-risk areas around the country, in the face of the continuing threat of the virus.ObjectiveWe aim to assess which regions in the Philippines can already reopen their schools.MethodsIn this study, we simulate school reopening scenarios with our modified COVID-19 agent-based model for the seventeen regions of the country. We tested different vaccination coverages and calculated the coverage at which deaths and infections would begin to show a downtick. The School Reopening Viability (SRV) of a region is then determined by getting the difference between the current vaccination coverage (as of 13 February 2022) and the downtick in infection or death.ResultsThe recent data on the COVID-19 Omicron variant transmission shows that all regions except Regions 7, 9, and BARMM can reopen. Comparing the SRV of a region to its vaccination progress, we see that those with high vaccination rates are the ones most viable for school reopening, as in the case of regions in Luzon. On the other hand, those with low vaccination rates are the ones that would need to ramp up their vaccination efforts before reopening their schools.ConclusionsWe recommend that with the current vaccination coverages for the regions, all regions except Regions 7, 9, and BARMM may undergo school reopening. Alongside efforts to reopen schools, vaccination efforts should still be continued and ramped up, especially in the regions of interest. Policymakers may take insights from this study.
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