Huanglongbing (HLB), a recent worldwide spreading disease on citrus, was detected in July 2009 in Yucatan State of Mexico. The objective of this study was to evaluate the fit of diffusion and classic disease gradient models to large-scale HLB spatial data originated from initial foci to improve sampling, monitoring, and control strategies for Diaphorina citri, vector of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), putative agent of HLB. Four transect routes were selected: Yuc-1, Yuc-2, QRoo-1, and QRoo-2, based on the directionality of the prevailing winds and foci location of HLB infected plants. In these routes, 35 sites, 5 to 20 km apart, were selected for monthly evaluation during a 12-month period. A 10-insect sample and disease incidence and severity of HLB, further confirmed by PCR, were assessed per site. Mexican lime was more vulnerable (67.5%) than sweet orange (14%). Also, leaf symptoms were mostly found with homogeneous distribution but rarely reaching 100% of the tree canopy during the 12-month period. The diffusion model provided the best fit among the family of time-gradient curves (r2 = 0.90 to 0.99) due to the flexibility of a three-parameter model. The gradients were well conformed to the model in a 25 to 82.6 km range, having the east-west direction the longest effect. Yuc-2 and QRoo-2 transects showed 82.6 and 43.9 km gradients with a diffusion coefficient (Do) of 0.15 and 0.09, respectively. This study constitutes the first quantitative evidence of the regional spread of CLas from a single focus and the application of a flexible model that improved the fit and allowed to better compare different gradients. These results are useful to determine the size of Regional Areas of Diaphorina citri Control (ARCO), a management program currently implemented in Mexico to combat HLB.

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion.

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BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.