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A definitive diagnosis of multiple sclerosis cannot be made at presentation on patients with a clinically isolated syndrome of the optic nerve, spinal cord or brainstem suggestive of demyelination, as dissemination in time is not established. To determine the long-term risk of abnormalities on brain MRI for the development of multiple sclerosis and disability we performed a 10-year follow-up on 81 such patients who had T2-weighted brain MRI at presentation. Initial brain MRI was abnormal in 54 (67%). Follow up of those patients with an abnormal MRI revealed progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis in 45 out of 54 (83%), of whom 11 (20%) had relapsing/remitting disease (EDSS > 3), 13 (24%) secondary progressive and 21 (39%) benign (relapsing/remitting with EDSS < or = 3) disease. For those with a normal MRI progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis occurred in only three out of 27 (11%), all benign. There was a significant relationship between the number of lesions at presentation and both EDSS (r = 0.45, P < 0.001) and the type of disease at follow-up (P < 0.0001). Brain MRI at presentation with a clinically isolated syndrome is predictive of the long-term risk of subsequent development of multiple sclerosis, the type of disease and extent of disability.

Objectives-Since Devic's original description of neuromyelitis optica in 1894 there has been much debate regarding its aetiology. A specific cause has been identified in a minority of cases but in most the question has arisen whether or not Devic's neuromyelitis optica is a variant of multiple sclerosis. This study was undertaken to help clarify this issue. Methods-Neuromyelitis optica was defined as (1) a severe transverse myelitis; (2) an acute unilateral or bilateral optic neuropathy; (3)

ObjectivesTo estimate the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) by age and describe secular trends and geographic variations within the UK over the 20-year period between 1990 and 2010 and hence to provide updated information on the impact of MS throughout the UK.DesignA descriptive study.SettingThe study was carried out in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), a primary care database representative of the UK population.Main outcome measuresIncidence and prevalence of MS per 100 000 population. Secular and geographical trends in incidence and prevalence of MS.ResultsThe prevalence of MS recorded in GPRD increased by about 2.4% per year (95% CI 2.3% to 2.6%) reaching 285.8 per 100 000 in women (95% CI 278.7 to 293.1) and 113.1 per 100 000 in men (95% CI 108.6 to 117.7) by 2010. There was a consistent downward trend in incidence of MS reaching 11.52 per 100 000/year (95% CI 10.96 to 12.11) in women and 4.84 per 100 000/year (95% CI 4.54 to 5.16) in men by 2010. Peak incidence occurred between ages 40 and 50 years and maximum prevalence between ages 55 and 60 years. Women accounted for 72% of prevalent and 71% of incident cases. Scotland had the highest incidence and prevalence rates in the UK.ConclusionsWe estimate that 126 669 people were living with MS in the UK in 2010 (203.4 per 100 000 population) and that 6003 new cases were diagnosed that year (9.64 per 100 000/year). There is an increasing population living longer with MS, which has important implications for resource allocation for MS in the UK.

The aim of this study was to determine whether atrophy could be detected at the earliest clinical stages of MS. Patients were selected from a 1-year follow-up MRI study of clinically isolated syndromes. Nine patients who developed MS were compared with eight matched patients who had no further symptoms. Significant ventricular enlargement occurred in the group that developed MS but not in the other group. Our findings show that atrophy, albeit mild, can be detected early in the course of MS.