Climate change is one of the main issues in the 21st century and has been felt in many regions of world such as the Ajichay basin. The greatest impact of climate change is on the water resource sector. Projected changes in precipitation, temperature and river runoff will largely affect the water cycle and hydrological systems with important results for economic sector. Therefore, the current study aims to investigate the impact of climate and water management scenarios on water resources, cropping patterns, yields, and profits of farmers using a hydro-economic model. Quadratic risk programming was used for economic modeling, and WEAP-MABIA was applied for hydrological modeling. The necessary data were collected from questionnaires completed by 210 farmers selected by stratified random sampling during 2018. The HadCM3 model and LARS-WG downscaling were used to generate daily climatic data under the emissions of A2, B1, and A1B scenarios. The results showed that climate change could reduce the profit and employment rate in the agricultural sector and cause a shift in cropping patterns to crops with low water requirements. In addition to the efficient use of allocated water, the application of increasing irrigation efficiency scenario could raise farmers' profits, providing them with a better situation than the agricultural water reduction scenario. Overall, the findings of the current study revealed that without changing the management strategies there will be a considerable reduction in water resource and crop yield in near future.

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