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This is a report on the Conservation in Lieu of Construction (CILOC) study which was a task in the Customer System Efficiency Improvement (CSEI) Assessment Project. This project was conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for the Office of Conservation, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The principal objective of the CSEI Project was to assess the potential for, and impacts of, conservation in the BPA service area. The objectives of this CILOC study were to first develop, and then apply, a methodology to examine the potential for direct load control to defer the construction of additional transmission and distribution capacity needed to accommodate load growth in a given area. These two objectives were first met by synthesizing two pieces of software, Loadcalc and Microcast,(a) and applying the resultant forecasting model to a test case. This test case considered the plan to add a 230 KV reinforcement line between Toledo and Albany, Oregon. This case allowed the testing and evaluation of the methodology developed in the first phase of the study. The CILOC methodology was based on the end-use forecasting approach incorporated in the Loadcalc and Microcast systems. However, neither piece of software was capable of performing the analysis required in this study. Both included questionable underlying assumptions. Some important problems ; i i CENTRAL LINCOLN CATALOG NUMBER CENL.ETC-001 CENL.ETC-002 CENL .ETC-003 CENL.ETC-004 CENL.ETC-005 CENL.ETC-006 CENL.I-007 CENL.ETC-008 CENL.ETC-009 CENL.ETC-010 CENL.ETC-011 CENL.ETC-012 CENL.RCI-013 CENL.ETC-014 CENL.ETC-015 CENL.ETC-016 CENL.ETC-017 CENL.R-018 ABBREVIATED CATALOGUE OF HOLDINGS TITLE BPA Form 980 of 6-82 Load & Sys. Plans •ys-'98 Financial Statements 12/83; 7/84 System loads by Delivery Pts 1983 Space & Water Heat Saturations Questions for Utilities CENL Proposed Industrial Conservation Acquisitions BPA Wholesale Bill (8-22-85) Load Estimate Review (3-29-85) for '84

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This report reviews options that may be alternatives to transmission construction (ATT) applicable both generally and at specific locations in the service area of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). Some of these options have potential as specific alternatives to the Shelton-Fairmount 230-kV Reinforcement Project, which is the focus of this study. A listing of 31 peak load management (PLM) options is included. Estimated costs and normalized hourly load shapes, corresponding to the respective base load and controlled load cases, are considered for 15 of the above options. A summary page is presented for each of these options, grouped with respect to its applicability in the residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors. The report contains comments on PLM measures for which load shape management characteristics are not yet available. These comments address the potential relevance of the options and the possible difficulty that may be encountered in characterizing their value should they be of interest in this investigation. The report also identifies options that could improve the efficiency of the three customer utility distribution systems supplied by the Shelton•Fairmount Reinforcement Project. Potential cogeneration options in the Olympic Peninsula are also discussed. These discussions focus on the options that appear to be most promising on the Olympic Peninsula. Finally, a short list of options is recommended for investigation in the next phase of this study.

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