A substantial increase in grain yield potential is required, along with better use of water and fertilizer, to ensure food security and environmental protection in future decades. For improvements in photosynthetic capacity to result in additional wheat yield, extra assimilates must be partitioned to developing spikes and grains and/or potential grain weight increased to accommodate the extra assimilates. At the same time, improvement in dry matter partitioning to spikes should ensure that it does not increase stem or root lodging. It is therefore crucial that improvements in structural and reproductive aspects of growth accompany increases in photosynthesis to enhance the net agronomic benefits of genetic modifications. In this article, six complementary approaches are proposed, namely: (i) optimizing developmental pattern to maximize spike fertility and grain number, (ii) optimizing spike growth to maximize grain number and dry matter harvest index, (iii) improving spike fertility through desensitizing floret abortion to environmental cues, (iv) improving potential grain size and grain filling, and (v) improving lodging resistance. Since many of the traits tackled in these approaches interact strongly, an integrative modelling approach is also proposed, to (vi) identify any trade-offs between key traits, hence to define target ideotypes in quantitative terms. The potential for genetic dissection of key traits via quantitative trait loci analysis is discussed for the efficient deployment of existing variation in breeding programmes. These proposals should maximize returns in food production from investments in increased crop biomass by increasing spike fertility, grain number per unit area and harvest index whilst optimizing the trade-offs with potential grain weight and lodging resistance.

Recent advances in crop research have the potential to accelerate genetic gains in wheat, especially if co-ordinated with a breeding perspective. For example, improving photosynthesis by exploiting natural variation in Rubisco's catalytic rate or adopting C(4) metabolism could raise the baseline for yield potential by 50% or more. However, spike fertility must also be improved to permit full utilization of photosynthetic capacity throughout the crop life cycle and this has several components. While larger radiation use efficiency will increase the total assimilates available for spike growth, thereby increasing the potential for grain number, an optimized phenological pattern will permit the maximum partitioning of the available assimilates to the spikes. Evidence for underutilized photosynthetic capacity during grain filling in elite material suggests unnecessary floret abortion. Therefore, a better understanding of its physiological and genetic basis, including possible signalling in response to photoperiod or growth-limiting resources, may permit floret abortion to be minimized for a more optimal source:sink balance. However, trade-offs in terms of the partitioning of assimilates to competing sinks during spike growth, to improve root anchorage and stem strength, may be necessary to prevent yield losses as a result of lodging. Breeding technologies that can be used to complement conventional approaches include wide crossing with members of the Triticeae tribe to broaden the wheat genepool, and physiological and molecular breeding strategically to combine complementary traits and to identify elite progeny more efficiently.

Wheat provides 20% of calories and protein consumed by humans. Recent genetic gains are <1% per annum (p.a.), insufficient to meet future demand. The Wheat Yield Consortium brings expertise in photosynthesis, crop adaptation and genetics to a common breeding platform. Theory suggest radiation use efficiency (RUE) of wheat could be increased~50%; strategies include modifying specificity, catalytic rate and regulation of Rubisco, up-regulating Calvin cycle enzymes, introducing chloroplast CO2 concentrating mechanisms, optimizing light and N distribution of canopies while minimizing photoinhibition, and increasing spike photosynthesis. Maximum yield expression will also require dynamic optimization of source: sink so that dry matter partitioning to reproductive structures is not at the cost of the roots, stems and leaves needed to maintain physiological and structural integrity. Crop development should favour spike fertility to maximize harvest index so phenology must be tailored to different photoperiods, and sensitivity to unpredictable weather must be modulated to reduce conservative responses that reduce harvest index. Strategic crossing of complementary physiological traits will be augmented with wide crossing, while genome-wide selection and high throughput phenotyping and genotyping will increase efficiency of progeny screening. To ensure investment in breeding achieves agronomic impact, sustainable crop management must also be promoted through crop improvement networks.

HighlightA phenotyping pipeline was used to quantify seedling root architectural traits in a wheat double haploid mapping population. QTL analyses revealed a potential major effect gene regulating seedling root vigour/growth.

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Our objective was to investigate the physiological basis of genetic progress in grain yield in CIMMYT spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars developed from 1966 to 2009 in irrigated, high‐potential conditions. Field experiments were conducted during three growing seasons in northwest Mexico (2008–2009, 2009–2010, and 2010–2011) examining 12 historic CIMMYT semidwarf spring wheat cultivars released from 1966 to 2009. The linear rate of genetic gain in grain yield was 30 kg ha−1 yr−1 (0.59% yr−1; R2 = 0.58, P = 0.01). Grain yield progress was associated with increased aboveground dry matter (AGDM) at harvest (R2 = 0.80, P < 0.001) and heavier grain weight (R2 = 0.46, P < 0.05). There was a positive linear association between AGDM and plant height (R2 = 0.43, P < 0.05) and between grain weight and the date of complete canopy senescence (CCS) among the 12 cultivars (R2 = 0.36, P < 0.05). There was no change in grains per square meter or harvest index (HI) with year of release (YoR). Grain weight was positively associated with potential grain weight (PGW), and PGW, in turn, was positively associated with rachis length per spikelet among the cultivars. Overall spike dry matter (DM) per square meter at anthesis (GS61) +7 d did not change with YoR. There was a trend for a linear increase in AGDM of fertile shoots (expressed as g m−2) at GS61 +7 d with YoR, but this was counteracted by spike partitioning decreasing overall during the 43‐yr period from 0.25 to 0.23. There was a linear increase in preanthesis flag‐leaf stomatal conductance with YoR (P < 0.05). There was no change in grain growth response to a degraining treatment imposed at GS61 +14 d (mean grain weight response +5.5%) indicating that the degree of source limitation to grain growth appeared to be small and unchanged in the older and modern cultivars. Generally, these results indicated that the rate of genetic progress in CIMMYT spring wheat has slowed but has not plateaued in recent decades, while genetic gains were associated with increase in both potential and final grain weight.

A quantitative model of wheat root systems is developed that links the size and distribution of the root system to the capture of water and nitrogen (which are assumed to be evenly distributed with depth) during grain filling, and allows estimates of the economic consequences of this capture to be assessed. A particular feature of the model is its use of summarizing concepts, and reliance on only the minimum number of parameters (each with a clear biological meaning). The model is then used to provide an economic sensitivity analysis of possible target characteristics for manipulating root systems. These characteristics were: root distribution with depth, proportional dry matter partitioning to roots, resource capture coefficients, shoot dry weight at anthesis, specific root weight and water use efficiency. From the current estimates of parameters it is concluded that a larger investment by the crop in fine roots at depth in the soil, and less proliferation of roots in surface layers, would improve yields by accessing extra resources. The economic return on investment in roots for water capture was twice that of the same amount invested for nitrogen capture.