Objectives-To test the hypothesis that bone scintigraphy will predict the outcome of osteoarthritis (OA) ofthe knee joint. Methods-Ninety four patients (65 women, 29 men; mean age 64-2 years) with established OA of one or both knee joints were examined in 1986, when radiographs and bone scan images (early and late phase) were also obtained. The patients were recalled, re-examined, and had further radiographs taken in 1991. Paired entry and outcome radiographs were read by a single observer, blinded to date order and other data. Scan findings and other entry variables were related to outcome. Progression of OA of the knee was defined as an operation on the knee or a decrease in the tibiofemoral joint space of 2 mm or more.

Five hundred patients with established, symptomatic limb joint OA have been recruited into an on-going prospective study of the natural history of the condition. Four hundred and fifteen patients (mean age 65.6 years, female to male ratio 2.05:1) were available for a full clinical and radiographic review 3 years after entry (mean entry to follow-up interval 37.6 months, range 31-41). The majority reported an overall worsening of their condition, although pain severity did not change. There was an overall increase in disability (Steinbrocker) and the use of walking aids in the group but 57 patients (13.7%) improved, 38 of whom had undergone joint surgery. There was a strong correlation between changes in different clinical outcome measures, but none of the baseline variables predicted change over 3 years with the exception of an association between pain severity and subsequent surgery. One hundred and ninety-three of the 415 patients had knee joint disease at entry. One hundred and forty-five of these patients had knee radiographs and full clinical data available from both time points. Some change was seen in 85 of 276 evaluable tibiofemoral joints (30.1%), but only 10 patellofemoral joints. There was a strong correlation between changes in joint space, osteophyte and subchondral bone scelerosis. However, there was no correlation between radiographic and clinical changes. It is concluded that radiographic change may not be a good surrogate for clinical outcome in established OA. This has implications for the design of long-term studies of possible structure modifying agents in OA.

Five hundred subjects with symptomatic limb joint osteoarthritis, who had been referred to a rheumatologist, were enrolled into a continuing study.

Patients with peripheral joint OA of sufficient severity to lead to hospital referral have a heterogeneous, but generally bad outcome over 8 years, the disease resulting in high levels of physical disability, anxiety and depression, with a high level of utilization of healthcare resources, including joint replacement, drugs and walking aids. The results were consistent with previous suggestions that peripheral joint OA in older people is characterized by the slow acquisition of new joint sites. Progression and outcome may depend on a complex set of psychosocial factors, as well as biological ones.