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Molecular modeling frequently constructs classification models for the prediction of two‐class entities, such as compound bio(in)activity, chemical property (non)existence, protein (non)interaction, and so forth. The models are evaluated using well known metrics such as accuracy or true positive rates. However, these frequently used metrics applied to retrospective and/or artificially generated prediction datasets can potentially overestimate true performance in actual prospective experiments. Here, we systematically consider metric value surface generation as a consequence of data balance, and propose the computation of an inverse cumulative distribution function taken over a metric surface. The proposed distribution analysis can aid in the selection of metrics when formulating study design. In addition to theoretical analyses, a practical example in chemogenomic virtual screening highlights the care required in metric selection and interpretation.

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Computational methods assisting drug discovery and development are routine in the pharmaceutical industry. Digital recording of ADMET assays has provided a rich source of data for development of predictive models. Despite the accumulation of data and the public availability of advanced modeling algorithms, the utility of prediction in ADMET research is not clear. Here, we present a critical evaluation of the relationships between data volume, modeling algorithm, chemical representation and grouping, and temporal aspect (time sequence of assays) using an inhouse ADMET database. We find no large difference in prediction algorithms nor any systemic and substantial gain from increasingly large datasets. Temporal-based data enlargement led to performance improvement in only in a limited number of assays, and with fractional improvement at best. Assays that are well-, intermediately-, or poorlysuited for ADMET predictions and reasons for such behavior are systematically identified, generating realistic expectations for areas in which computational models can be used to guide decision making in molecular design and development.