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Preoperative risk assessment of potential kidney transplant recipients often fails to adequately balance risk related to underlying comorbidities with the beneficial impact of kidney transplantation. We sought to develop a simple scoring system based on factors known at the time of patient assessment for placement on the waitlist to predict likelihood of severe adverse events 1 year post-transplant. The tool includes four components: age, cardiopulmonary factors, functional status, and metabolic factors. Pre-transplant factors strongly associated with severe adverse events include diabetic (OR: 3.76, P<.001), coronary artery disease (OR: 3.45, P<.001), history of CABG/PCI (OR 3.1, P=.001), and peripheral vascular disease (OR 2.74, P=.008).The score was evaluated by calculation of concordance index. The C statistic of 0.74 for the risk stratification group was considered good discrimination in the validation cohort (N=127) compared to the development cohort (N=368). The pre-transplant risk group was highly predictive of severe adverse events (OR 2.36, P<.001). Patients stratified into the above average-risk group were four times more likely to experience severe adverse events compared to average-risk patients, while patients in the high-risk group were nearly 11 times more likely to experience severe adverse events. The pre-transplant risk stratification tool is a simple scoring scheme using easily obtained preoperative characteristics that can meaningfully stratify patients in terms of post-transplant risk and may ultimately guide patient selection and inform the counseling of potential kidney transplant recipients.

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