are found to be seriously incomplete. Each study omits one or several of four major cost-reducing policy options, resulting in cost estimates that are far too pessimistic.In the present study, these shortcomings are overcome through the integrated evaluation of all major cost-cutting policy options within a coherent least-cost framework. Three domestic policies-a national carbon cap and permit trading program, productivity-enhancing market reforms and technology programs, and recycling of permit auction revenues into economically advantageous tax cuts-are combined with international emissions allowance trading.This analysis shows that an integrated least-cost strategy for mitigating U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would produce an annual net output gain of roughly 0.4% of GDP in 2010 and about 0.9% of GDP in 2020. On a cumulative net present value basis, the United States would gain $250 billion by 2010 and $600 billion by 2020. International flexibility mechanisms (including emissions trading) are of only secondary significance in realizing these productivity, output, and welfare gains. (JEL Q43, Q48)
This article examines how an integrated least‐cost implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in the United States would affect U.S. competitiveness and jobs. Drawing on previous work, the authors analyze integrated emission reduction strategies based on a $50/ton carbon tax (including border tax adjustments), a payroll tax cut, energy‐productivity–oriented market reforms, and international flexibility mechanisms. This policy portfolios is compared to conventional approaches that omit market and fiscal reforms. Input‐output data are used to estimate the impact on export prices of goods and services produced in the United States. Similar data are used to translate changes in GDP and energy production into employment impacts in energy and nonenergy sectors. The costs of providing transitional assistance for workers in the coal industry are compared to the GDP benefits of a profitable Kyoto strategy. The analysis shows that relative to purchasing international emission rights, productivity‐raising domestic market, institutional, and fiscal reforms offer much broader advantages for tradE‐exposed U.S. industries. Though allowance purchases alone increase export prices of U.S. manufactured goods and services, an integrated no‐regrets strategy reduces export prices for the large majority of U.S. industries and limits the impact of climate protection policies on the few most energy‐intensive basic materials industries to very small levels. Relative to the baseline, an integrated least‐cost implementation of the Kyoto target increases economy‐wide employment levels by several hundred thousand jobs in 2010.
Abstract. The Dead Sea desertification-threatened region is affected by continual lake level decline and occasional but life-endangering flash floods. Climate change has aggravated such issues in the past decades. In this study, the impact on local conditions leading to heavy precipitation from the changing conditions of the Dead Sea is investigated. Idealized sensitivity simulations with the high-resolution COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling and Climate Limited-area Modelling) and several numerical weather prediction (NWP) runs on an event timescale are performed on the Dead Sea area. The simulations are idealized in the sense that the Dead Sea model representation does not accurately represent the real conditions but those given by an external dataset. A reference or Dead Sea simulation covering the 2003–2013 period and a twin sensitivity or bare soil simulation in which the Dead Sea is set to bare soil are compared. NWP simulations focus on heavy precipitation events exhibiting relevant differences between the Dead Sea and the bare soil decadal realization to assess the impact on the underlying convection-related processes. The change in the conditions of the Dead Sea is seen to affect the atmospheric conditions leading to convection in two ways. (a) The local decrease in evaporation reduces moisture availability in the lower boundary layer locally and in the neighbouring regions, directly affecting atmospheric stability. Weaker updraughts characterize the drier and more stable atmosphere of the simulations in which the Dead Sea has been dried out. (b) Thermally driven wind system circulations and resulting divergence/convergence fields are altered, preventing in many occasions the initiation of convection because of the omission of convergence lines. On a decadal scale, the difference between the simulations suggests a weak decrease in evaporation, higher air temperatures and less precipitation (less than 0.5 %).
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