Question: Is the modern patchy distribution of highly biodiverse Polylepis woodlands a consequence of human activity or natural fluctuations in environmental conditions? What are the consequences of changing climate for the tree genus Polylepis?Location: High central tropical Andes. Methods:We characterized the ecological baseline conditions for Polylepis woodlands over the last ca. 370 000 years through: (i) examination of fossil pollen records (Salar de Uyuni and Lake Titicaca) and (ii) a review of autecological information concerning Polylepis.Results: Fossil pollen data revealed fluctuations in the abundance (ca. 0-34%) of Polylepis pollen before the arrival of humans in South America (412 000 years ago), indicating that Polylepis did not form permanent continuous woodland before the arrival of humans and that climatic factors can drive rapid vegetation change. Autecological assessment of Polylepis revealed: (i) negative moisture balance, (ii) fire, (iii) waterlogging, and (iv) cloud cover to be critical in determining the niche space available for Polylepis. Conclusions:Polylepis niche space in the central Andes was at a maximum during warm and wet conditions in the past, but might be at a minimum during the warmer and drier than modern conditions predicted for later this century. The sensitivity to past global climate change emphasizes the need for conservation planners to consider model predictions of a warmer central Andes in the coming decades when developing planting schemes. Natural fluctuations in woodland abundance suggest the most effective way for conservation efforts to ''mimic'' the natural baseline would be to develop a reproductively connected patchwork of communities. Nomenclature: Judd et al. (1999)Abbreviations: kyr BP 5 thousands of years before present ( 14 C ages calibrated where appropriate); LGM 5 last glacial maximum; MIS 5 marine isotope stage; m a.s.l. 5 meters above sea level.

Abstract. A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distributions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large-scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are reflected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary productivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composition of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.

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2005. Contrasting pollen histories of MIS 5e and the Holocene from Lake Titicaca (Bolivia/Peru). ABSTRACT: Two long sediment records (cores LTO1-2B and LT01-3B) from Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/ Peru, are compared with a previously analysed Holocene record from this lake (core NE98-1PC). The Holocene records of LT01-2B and NE98-1PC are similar. There are striking differences, however, between the MIS 5e sections of the long cores and the Holocene records. In these records, temperature is probably the dominant parameter that determines the total fossil pollen concentration and is used to time the onset and termination of deglaciation. In contrast, the relative and absolute abundance of specific taxa (e.g. Polylepis/Acaena, Chenopodiaceae) are indicators of relative moisture availability. Although the Holocene contains a period of aridity between ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and 4300 cal. yr BP, it is a minor event compared with the more extreme aridity of MIS 5e. Core LT01-3B showed similar trends during MIS 5e when compared to LT01-2B, as did NE98-1PC when comparing Holocene records. MIS 5e and the Holocene are markedly different interglacials, depicted by shifts in pollen concentration and taxa representation over time.