(2016) The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model. AbstractThis paper investigates the extent to which the size affects the SMEs probabilities of bankruptcy.Using a dataset of (11,117) US non-financial firms, of which (465) filed for insolvency under chapters 7/11 between 1980 and 2013. We forecast the bankruptcy probabilities by developing four discretetime duration-dependant hazard models namely SMEs, Micro, Small, and Medium. A comparison of the default prediction models for medium firms and SMEs suggest that almost an identical set of explanatory variables affect the default probabilities leading us to believe that there is no material impact on the decision-making process by treating each of these groups separately. However, comparisons between the micro and small firms with the SMEs firms strongly suggest that they need to be considered separately while modelling credit risk for them.JEL classification:

We investigate how a firm's decision to hold excessive cash or to overinvest could influence its dividend payout policy in Indonesia. Additionally, we examine the association between corporate ownership structure and cash dividends. Using a data set of Indonesian listed firms for the period from 1995 to 2014, we find that excessive cash holding (overinvestment) positively (negatively) affects a firm's likelihood of paying dividends. Also, we find that family, foreign, state and institutional ownership have significantly negative links with dividends, which suggests the signals of expropriation of firms' wealth by major shareholders. These findings strongly support the expropriation hypothesis that commonly applies to firms with higher level of concentration or to firms in a weak legal environment by which the rights of minority interests are put at risk by large shareholders.

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We investigate how a firm's decision to hold excessive cash or to overinvest could influence its dividend payout policy in Indonesia. Additionally, we examine the association between corporate ownership structure and cash dividends. Using a data set of Indonesian listed firms for the period from 1995 to 2014, we find that excessive cash holding (overinvestment) positively (negatively) affects a firm's likelihood of paying dividends. Also, we find that family, foreign, state and institutional ownership have significantly negative links with dividends, which suggests the signals of expropriation of firms' wealth by major shareholders. These findings strongly support the expropriation hypothesis that commonly applies to firms with higher level of concentration or to firms in a weak legal environment by which the rights of minority interests are put at risk by large shareholders.

Do exchange-traded funds (ETFs) influence corporate cash holding decisions? Consistent with reduced managerial learning from the stock market and increased uncertainty due to higher ETF ownership, we show that firms included in ETF baskets have higher cash holdings as a precautionary response. We address endogeneity concerns through different natural experiments, namely, the reconstitution of the Russell 1000/2000 index and BlackRock's acquisition of iShares. We identify changes in revenue, external financing, share repurchases and net working capital as potential channels through which cash holdings increase due to higher ETF ownership, with cash holdings increases having a positive impact on firm value.

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