Forecasting is performed due to the complexity and uncertainty faced by a decision maker. This article discusses the selection of an appropriate forecasting model with time series data available. An appropriate forecasting model is required to estimate systematically about what is most likely to occur in the future based on past data series, so that errors (the differences between what actually happens and the results of the estimation) can be minimized. A gauge is required to detect the required the value of forecast accuracy. In this paper ways of forecasting accuracy of detection are discussed using the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasting method uses Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Winters method. With the three methods forecast value is determined and the smallest value of MSE and Mape is selected. The results of data analysis showed that the Exponential Smoothing is considered an appropriate method to forecast the sales volume of PT Satriamandiri Citramulia because it produces the smallest value of MSE and Mape.
This paper discusses the application of multiple linear regression to measure the efficiency and success of the pattern of groundwater using System of Rice Intensification. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the procedures and the use of multiple linear regression analysis and to measure the impact of independent variables (habits of farmers P3A) in the use of groundwater. Multiple Linear Regression analysis is used to examine the relationships and dependencies between farmers habits P3A to the efficiency of water use patterns of SRI. The results show that the success and efficiency groundwater use is recommended in SRI pattern depends on the habits and behavior of the P3A farmers use ground water for their farming needs.
This study aimed to evaluate the involvement of women in Rice Farming Enterprise in Regency of Bandung, Subang and Karawang in a government program of gender equality. Through the estimation of proportion and descriptive studies by comparing figures targeted by the government of at least 30%, it can be evaluated that there is variability in all regencies. Further studies are analytical studies to determine the alleged intervals and hypothesis testing for proportions and to conduct studies by comparing observations and determined value by using the standard normal distribution. The results of the study shows that the role of women/gender in Rice Farming Enterprise is very dominant at each stage of planting, weeding and harvesting stages. For other stages such as land cultivation, Countermeasures Integrated Pest, irrigation and distribution, the women's role is less dominant. This information is expected to support the Agricultural Sector policy makersin developing women's empowerment and gender equity.
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