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The Oldman River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, is an extensively irrigated region in which intensive agricultural practices have flourished. Concern over water quality in the basin has been expressed because of high levels of enteric disease indigenous to the region. To address these concerns, we conducted a 2-year study to estimate the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. in surface water within the basin. This study is the first of its kind to identify E. coli O157:H7 repeatedly in surface water collected from a Canadian watershed. Prevalence of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. in water samples was 0.9% (n = 1,483) and 6.2% (n = 1,429), respectively. While data examined at a regional level show a relationship between high livestock density and high pathogen levels in southern Alberta, statistical analysis of point source data indicates that predicted manure output from bovine, swine, and poultry feeding operations was not directly associated with either Salmonella spp. or E. coli O157:H7 prevalence. However, geography and weather variables, which are likely to influence bacterial runoff, were not considered in this model. We also postulate that variations in time, amount, and frequency of manure application onto agricultural lands may have influenced levels of surface-water contamination with these bacterial pathogens.

This paper combines a wide-area assessment of forecast changes in wintertime synoptic conditions over western North America with a meso-scale alpine hydrometeorology model to evaluate the impacts of forecast climate change on snowpack conditions in an alpine watershed. The synoptic analysis was used to generate long-term climate time series scenarios using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis first-generation coupled general circulation model (GCM). The alpine hydrometeorology model SIMGRID is used to predict changes in wintertime precipitation at the watershed scale. The SNOPAC model is a simple snow model that predicts the overall snow accumulation throughout a watershed based on the output from SIMGRID. A vapour transfer model has been incorporated into the SNOPAC model to estimate snow volumes more accurately. The model is applied to a small alpine watershed in the southern Canadian Rockies. The synoptic analysis and GCM output forecasts a modest increase in both winter precipitation and temperatures in the study area. The hypothesis herein is that the increase in winter precipitation due to synoptic conditions will not compensate for regional changes in the rain-to-snow ratios. The net result will be a decline in winter accumulations of precipitation as snow, and hence an expected decline in spring runoff.

Raw river and irrigation water in the Oldman River Basin in southern Alberta was tested for the presence of two bacterial pathogens, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp., over the last 2 yr (2000-2001). The number of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. isolated from raw water peaked during the summer months. While E. coli O157:H7 was only isolated from 11/802 (1.35%) of raw water samples over the entire sampling season in 2000 and from 16/806 (2.05%) of the samples in 2001, the pathogen was isolated one or more times from 10/35 (28.55%) sampling sites in 2000 and from 13/40 (32.55%) sampling sites in 2001. Salmonella was isolated from 44/802 (5.55%) of raw water samples in 2000 and from 122/822 (14.95%) of the samples in 2001; the pathogen was isolated one or more times from 25/35 (71.45%) sampling sites in 2000 and from 29/40 (72.55%) sampling sites in 2001. Certain sites had multiple pathogen isolations in the same year and from year to year. Salmonella Rublislaw was the most common Salmonella serovar isolated in both years, accounting for 52.45% of isolates.