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This paper on the Baza Fault provides the first palaeoseismic data from trenches in the central sector of the Betic Cordillera (S Spain), one of the most tectonically active areas of the Iberian Peninsula. With the palaeoseismological data we constructed time-stratigraphic OxCal models that yield probability density functions (PDFs) of individual palaeoseismic event timing. We analysed PDF overlap to quantitatively correlate the walls and site events into a single earthquake chronology. We assembled a surface-rupturing history of the Baza Fault for the last ca. 45000 years. We postulated six alternative surface rupturing histories including 8-9 fault-wide earthquakes. We calculated fault-wide earthquake recurrence intervals using Monte Carlo. This analysis yielded a 4750-5150 yr recurrence interval. Finally, compared our results with the results from empirical relationships. Our results will provide a basis for future analyses of more of other active normal faults in this region. Moreover, our results will be essential for improving earthquakeprobability assessments in Spain, where palaeoseismic data are scarce.

The geometry and kinematics of active faults have a significant impact on their seismic potential. In this work, a structural characterization of the active Baza Fault (central Betic Cordillera, southern Spain) combining surface and subsurface data is presented. Two sectors are defined based on their surface geometry: a northern sector striking N–S to NNW–SSE with a narrow damage zone and a southern sector striking NW–SE with a wide damage zone. A kinematic analysis shows pure normal fault kinematics along most of the fault. Geometric differences between the northern and southern sectors are caused by i) a heterogeneous basement controlling the fault geometry at depth and in the cover; ii) different orientations of the Baza Fault in the basement with respect to the regional extension direction and iii) interaction with other active faults. We use this structural characterization to analyse the segmentation of the Baza Fault. According to segmentation criteria, the entire Baza Fault should be considered a single fault seismogenic segment. Consequently, the seismic potential of the fault is defined for a complete rupture. Magnitude for the Mmax event is calculated using several scale relationships, obtaining values ranging between Mw 6.6 and Mw 7.1. Recurrence times range between approximately 2,000 and 2,200 years for Mmax events and between 5,300 and 5,400 years for palaeo-events. A geodetic scenario modelled for an Mmax event of Mw 6.7 shows permanent vertical displacements of more than 0.40m and an overall WSW–ENE extension during entire ruptures of the Baza Fault.

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The coexistence of shortening and extensional tectonic regimes is a common feature in orogenic belts. The westernmost end of the Western Mediterranean is an area undergoing shortening related to the 5 mm/yr NNW‒SSE convergence of the Nubia and Eurasia Plates. In this region, the Central Betic Cordillera shows a regional ENE‒WSW extension. Here, we present GNSS‐derived geodetic data along a 170 km‐long transect orthogonal to the main active normal faults of the Central Betic Cordillera. Our data indicate that the total extension rate along the Central Betic Cordillera is 2.0 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Extension is accommodated in the eastern (0.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr in the Guadix‐Baza Basin) and western (1.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr in the Granada Basin) parts of the Central Betic Cordillera, while no extension is recorded in the central part of the study area. Moreover, our data permit us to quantify, for the first time, short‐term fault slip rates of the Granada Fault System, which is one of the main seismogenic sources of the Iberian Peninsula. We deduce a fault slip rate of ∼1.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr for the whole Granada Basin, with 0.9 ± 0.3 mm/yr being accommodated in the Granada Fault System and 0.4 ± 0.3 mm/yr being accommodated in the southwestern sector of the Granada Basin, where no active faults have been previously described at the surface. The heterogeneous extension in the Central Betic Cordillera could be accommodated by shallow high‐angle normal faults that merge with a detachment at depth. Part of the active extension could be derived from gravitational instability because of underlying over‐thickened crust.