In this paper, we present a data-driven model for forecasting the production increase after hydraulic fracturing (HF). We use data from fracturing jobs performed at one of the Siberian oilfields. The data includes features, characterizing the jobs, and geological information. To predict an oil rate after the fracturing machine learning (ML) technique was applied. We compared the ML-based prediction to a prediction based on the experience of reservoir and production engineers responsible for the HF-job planning. We discuss the potential for further development of ML techniques for predicting changes in oil rate after HF.
Well known oil recovery factor estimation techniques such as analogy, volumetric calculations, material balance, decline curve analysis, hydrodynamic simulations have certain limitations. Those techniques are time-consuming, require specific data and expert knowledge. Besides, though uncertainty estimation is highly desirable for this problem, the methods above do not include this by default. In this work, we present a data-driven technique for oil recovery factor of hydrocarbon reservoirs using parameters and various representative statistics. We apply advanced machine learning methods using extensive historical worldwide oilfields datasets (more than 2000 oil reservoirs). The data-driven model might be used as a general tool for rapid and completely objective estimation of the oil recovery factor. In addition, it includes the ability to work with partial input data and to estimate the prediction interval of the oil recovery factor. We perform the evaluation in terms of accuracy and prediction intervals coverage for several tree-based machine learning techniques in application to the following two cases: (1) using parameters only related to geometry, geology, transport, storage and fluid properties, (2) using an extended set of parameters including development and production data. For both cases model proved itself to be robust and reliable. We conclude that the proposed data-driven approach overcomes several limitations of the traditional methods and is suitable for rapid, reliable and objective estimation of oil recovery factor for hydrocarbon reservoir.
Waterflooding is a widely used secondary oil recovery technique. The oil and gas industry uses a complex reservoir numerical simulation and reservoir engineering analysis to forecast production curves from waterflooding projects. The application of such standard methods at the stage of assessing the potential of a huge number of projects could be computationally inefficient and requires a lot of effort. This paper demonstrates the applicability of machine learning to rate the outcome of waterflooding applied to an oil reservoir. We also explore the relationship of project evaluations by operators at the final stages with several performance metrics for forecasting. Real data about several thousand waterflooding projects in Texas are used in the current study. We compare the ML models rankings of the waterflooding efficiency and the expert rankings. Linear regression models along with neural networks and gradient boosting on decision threes are considered. We show that machine learning models allow reducing computational complexity and can be useful for rating the reservoirs, with respect to the effectiveness of waterflooding.
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