The present study investigates the determinants of interregional migration flows in Italy in the light of the upsurge occurred in 1996, after two decades of decreasing internal migration rates. We apply the fixed effect vector decomposition estimator (FEVD) on a gravity model using bilateral migration flows for the period 1996-2005 and show that it improves the estimates with respect to the traditional panel data estimators. We find that omitting distance and in presence of rarely time invariant covariates (e.g., population and income) the standard panel data models significantly bias the estimates. The overall economic level and the probability to find a job (proxied by per capita GDP and unemployment rate) appear to be the key variables whose changes are able to push flows of migrants away from their regions and to direct them to "better off" destinations. We find that migrants leaving the regions in the Centre-North respond differently to the push and pull forces with respect to southern migrants. We then estimate a dynamic model and find evidence for the presence of social networks which in our model take place between each pair of regions.
This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian outbound tourism trips disaggregated by purpose of visit. A dynamic panel data analysis is carried out on a sample of 65 countries over the period [2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011]. To disentangle pushing and pulling effects, the migration variables are defined at both the origin and the destination of tourism flows. We also control for the Italian real GDP per capita, relative prices and distance. The results show that the stock of Italian residing abroad has a positive impact on outbound tourism for all purposes. Conversely, the stock of foreign-born citizens residing in Italy appears to push Italian outbound tourism for business motives and visiting friends and relatives, but not for holiday trips.
After two decades of low internal migration rates, official national statistics report a considerable increase of internal mobility which started in 1996 and still continues to grow at the time of writing. Using panel data analysis on gross migration flows between regions, this study investigates the role of the main economic determinants during the period 1996-2002.. The analysis distinguishes between the role played by the same explanatory variable in the sending region (push factor) and in the destination region (pull factor). The per capita GDP turns out to be the main economic determinant, showing a strong effect both when it acts as a push factor and when it acts as an attractive factor. On the contrary, the effect of the unemployment rate estimates is much stronger in the sending region than in the destination region. Moreover, the standard gravity variables like distance and population size are also significant and with the expected sign.
This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analyzed for the period 2005-2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates are performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the VFRs from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus which clearly goes beyond visiting friends and relatives. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.
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