Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality--offer clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to even longer lives.

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There is an intense search for longevity genes in both animal models and humans. Human family studies have indicated that a modest amount of the overall variation in adult lifespan (approximately 20-30%) is accounted for by genetic factors. But it is not known if genetic factors become increasingly important for survival at the oldest ages. We study the genetic influence on human lifespan and how it varies with age using the almost extinct cohorts of Danish, Finnish and Swedish twins born between 1870 and 1910 comprising 20,502 individuals followed until 2003-2004. We first estimate mean lifespan of twins by lifespan of co-twin and then turn to the relative recurrence risk of surviving to a given age. Mean lifespan for male monozygotic (MZ) twins increases 0.39 [95% CI (0.28, 0.50)] years for every year his co-twin survives past age 60 years. This rate is significantly greater than the rate of 0.21 (0.11, 0.30) for dizygotic (DZ) males. Females and males have similar rates and these are negligible before age 60 for both MZ and DZ pairs. We moreover find that having a co-twin surviving to old ages substantially and significantly increases the chance of reaching the same old age and this chance is higher for MZ than for DZ twins. The relative recurrence risk of reaching age 92 is 4.8 (2.2, 7.5) for MZ males, which is significantly greater than the 1.8 (0.10, 3.4) for DZ males. The patterns for females and males are very similar, but with a shift of the female pattern with age that corresponds to the better female survival. Similar results arise when considering only those Nordic twins that survived past 75 years of age. The present large population based study shows genetic influence on human lifespan. While the estimated overall strength of genetic influence is compatible with previous studies, we find that genetic influences on lifespan are minimal prior to age 60 but increase thereafter. These findings provide a support for the search for genes affecting longevity in humans, especially at advanced ages.

In population studies on aging, the data on genetic markers are often collected for individuals from different age groups. The purpose of such studies is to identify, by comparison of the frequencies of selected genotypes, "longevity" or "frailty" genes in the oldest and in younger groups of individuals. To address questions about more-complicated aspects of genetic influence on longevity, additional information must be used. In this article, we show that the use of demographic information, together with data on genetic markers, allows us to calculate hazard rates, relative risks, and survival functions for respective genes or genotypes. New methods of combining genetic and demographic information are discussed. These methods are tested on simulated data and then are applied to the analysis of data on genetic markers for two haplogroups of human mtDNA. The approaches suggested in this article provide a powerful tool for analyzing the influence of candidate genes on longevity and survival. We also show how factors such as changes in the initial frequencies of candidate genes in subsequent cohorts, or secular trends in cohort mortality, may influence the results of an analysis.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi

"We develop a new model of bivariate survival based on the notion of correlated individual frailty. We analyze the properties of this model and suggest a new approach to the analysis of bivariate data that does not require a parametric specification--but permits estimation--of the form of the hazard function for individuals. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of the model in the statistical analysis of bivariate data." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Objective: In euthyroid individuals, autoantibodies to thyroid peroxidase (TPOab) and thyroglobulin (Tgab) are regarded as early markers of thyroid autoimmunity. Family and twin studies suggest that development of thyroid autoantibodies in first-degree relatives of patients with autoimmune thyroid disease is under genetic influence. We aimed to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental effects for the presence of thyroid autoantibodies in euthyroid subjects. Methods: A representative sample of healthy twin pairs was identified through the Danish Twin Registry; 1372 individuals, divided into 283 monozygotic (MZ), 285 dizygotic same sex (DZ), and 118 opposite sex twin pairs were investigated. Serum TPOab and serum Tgab were measured. Probandwise concordance and intraclass correlations were calculated, and quantitative genetic modelling was performed. Results: Probandwise concordance and intraclass correlations were consistently higher for MZ than for DZ twin pairs indicating genetic influence. Genetic components (with 95% confidence intervals) accounted for 73% (46-89%) of the liability of being thyroid antibody positive. Adjusting for covariates (age, TSH and others), the estimate for genetic influence on serum TPOab concentrations was 61% (49-70%) in males and 72% (64 -79%) in females. For serum Tgab concentrations, the estimates were 39% (24-51%) and 75% (66-81%) respectively. Conclusions: Early markers of thyroid autoimmunity appear to be under strong genetic influence. The analyses suggest that it is the same set of genes that operate in males and females. However, complex mechanisms such as dominance and/or epistasis may be involved. European Journal of Endocrinology 154 29-38

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