Intensively managed plantations account for 1.5% of the world's forests, but they meet one-third of the demand for wood products. Eucalyptus plantations are among the most productive, with rates of growth depending heavily on genetics, silviculture, and climate. The TECHS Project examines productivity at 36 locations across a 3500 km gradient from Brazil to Uruguay, testing the interacting influences of genetics, temperature and precipitation on stemwood production. Across all sites and genotypes, stemwood production in the middle of the 6year rotation (the peak period of growth) averaged 22 Mg ha −1 yr −1. Production varied by fivefold across sites, and by about 2-fold among genotypes within each site. The best clones at each location grew 1.5-4 Mg ha −1 yr −1 more than the average for all clones, underscoring the importance of matching genotypes to local site conditions. Contrary to patterns for natural forests across geographic gradients, Eucalyptus production declined with increasing temperature, dropping by 2.5 Mg ha −1 yr −1 for a 1°C temperature increase. The temperature effect was likely driven in part by the geographic covariance of temperature and rainfall, as rainfall tended to decline by 78 mm yr −1 for each 1°C increase in temperature. Stemwood production increased an average of 1.5 Mg ha −1 yr −1 for each 100 mm yr −1 increase in precipitation, but when the covariation of temperature and precipitation were included the apparent influence of precipitation declined to 0.4 Mg ha −1 yr −1 for each 100 mm yr −1 increase in precipitation. Future results will determine if within-site reductions in ambient rainfall have the same apparent influences as the rainfall pattern across the geographic gradient, as well as quantifying the importance of insects and pests in affecting growth. The supply of wood from intensively managed plantations will be strongly influenced by both temperature and precipitation at plantation locations, and with changing climates.

The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation LiDAR (GEDI) is a new full waveform (FW) based LiDAR system that presents a new opportunity for the observation of forest structures globally. The backscattered GEDI signals, as all FW systems, are distorted by topographic conditions within their footprint, leading to uncertainties on the measured forest variables. In this study, we explore how well several approaches based on waveform metrics and ancillary digital elevation model (DEM) data perform on the estimation of stand dominant heights (Hdom) and wood volume (V) across different sites of Eucalyptus plantations with varying terrain slopes. In total, five models were assessed on their ability to estimate Hdom and four models for V. Results showed that the models using the GEDI metrics, such as the height at different energy quantiles with terrain data from the shuttle radar topography mission’s (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) were still dependent on the topographic slope. For Hdom, an RMSE increase of 14% was observed for data acquired over slopes higher than 20% in comparison to slopes between 10 and 20%. For V, a 74% increase in RMSE was reported between GEDI data acquired over slopes between 0–10% and those acquired over slopes higher than 10%. Next, a model relying on the height at different energy quantiles of the entire waveform (HTn) and the height at different energy quartiles of the bare ground waveform (HGn) was assessed. Two sets of the HGn metrics were generated, the first one was obtained using a simulated waveform representing the echo from a bare ground, while the second one relied on the actual ground return from the waveform by means of Gaussian fitting. Results showed that both the simulated and fitted models provide the most accurate estimates of Hdom and V for all slope ranges. The simulation-based model showed an RMSE that ranged between 1.39 and 1.66 m (between 26.76 and 39.26 m3·ha−1 for V) while the fitting-based method showed an RMSE that ranged between 1.26 and 1.34 m (between 26.78 and 36.29 m3·ha−1 for V). Moreover, the dependency of the GEDI metrics on slopes was greatly reduced using the two sets of metrics. As a conclusion, the effect of slopes on the 25-m GEDI footprints is rather low as the estimation on canopy heights from uncorrected waveforms degraded by a maximum of 1 m for slopes between 20 and 45%. Concerning the wood volume estimation, the effect of slopes was more pronounced, and a degradation on the accuracy (increased RMSE) of a maximum of 20 m3·ha−1 was observed for slopes between 20 and 45%.

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Brazil is one of the world’s wood short-fiber producers, cultivating 7.5 million hectares of eucalypt trees. Foresters and resource managers often face difficulties in surveying reliable Eucalyptus productivity levels for the purpose of purchasing and prospecting lands. Spatial data science (DS) and machine learning (ML) provide powerful approaches to make the best use of the large datasets available today. Agriculture has made great use of these approaches, and in this paper, we explore how forestry can benefit as well. We hypothesized that both DS and ML techniques can be used to improve Eucalyptus productivity zoning based on multiple operational datasets of tree growth and environment. Based on more than 12,000 permanent forest inventory plots of commercial Eucalyptus plantations and the climate, soil, and altitude variables associated with them, a supervised ML approach was adjusted to model the forest plantation productivity. A multi-tuning of the decision-tree (DT) algorithm hyperparameters was prepared to yield 450 DT models, with a better one delivering an RMSE of 53.5 m3 ha−1, split in 35 terminal nodes, here interpreted as Eucalyptus productivity zones. The DT model showed an optimum performance index of 0.83, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, a root mean squared error of 12.3 m3 ha−1, and a mean absolute percentage error only of 3.1% in predicting the testing dataset throughout the study area. The DT rule set was interpreted in a user-friendly table and was prepared to classify any location within the study area in each one of the 35 productivity zones based on the required environment variables of the DT algorithm. The high quality of the model obtained made it possible to spatialize the DT rules, providing a reliable cartographic visualization of the probability levels of true Eucalyptus productivity for a huge region of forest-based industries in Brazil. These data-science techniques also provided a yield gap analysis using a very down-to-earth approach. We estimated a yield gap by an amount of 4.2 × 107 m3, representing a few more than 113,000 ha, or 15% of the current forest base. This is the amount of avoided area expansion to accumulate the same wood stock in case the productivity is raised to the attainable level in each zone. This present study provided deeper analysis and reproducible tools to manage forest assets sustainably.