The current trade embargo imposed by India has created an acute fuel crisis in Nepal which has stranded more than 50% of public vehicles affecting the supply of all the necessities and daily life of people. This study has shown some alternative ways to manage the vehicle fuel demand especially for urban transportation in the Kathmandu valley, Nepal. The modeling tool, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAPS) has been used to develop a bottom-up model to estimate the energy demand and environmental emissions in the Kathmandu valley for the period 2016-2030 AD. Besides the Reference scenario, four alternative scenarios (Public Bus Penetration, Improved Fuel Economy, Electric Motorbike and Hybrid Electric Car) have been developed. In the Reference scenario, the cumulative energy demand will reach 142,092 thousand GJ within the analysis period. About 65% of this demand comes from motorbikes and light duty vehicles. If all of the alternative scenarios are implemented together, about 38% of energy demand and 54% of CO2 emission can be avoided compared to the reference scenario within the study period. About 1641 million US$ at the current market price can be avoided within the analysis period if all of these four options are applied together.HYDRO Nepal: Journal of Water Energy and EnvironmentVolume 18, 2016, JanuaryPage 30-40
Abstract:The reliable future energy demand projection is an essential requirement for planning and formulating the policy to provide sustainable energy supply in the country. The purpose of this study is to project the sectoral energy demand up to 2030 under different anticipated growth scenarios of national economy. To project future energy demand, the end use industrial sector energy demand model based on Longrange Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) framework has been formulated with four GDP growth scenarios namely business as usual (BA), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG) and high growth (HG) respectively. Further, the study has illustrated that among the industrial sub-sectors, the energy demand of food beverage and tobacco, textile & leather, chemical rubber & plastics, mechanical engineering & metallurgy and wood products & papers will be increased while the electrical engineering and products subsector will be decreased. Among the anticipated scenarios, the BA scenario has been selected as a reference scenario for policy measures. In the policy scenario, it has been found that the total sectoral energy demand and electricity demand can be reduced from 1.78 and 2.42 times of the base year demand in BA scenario to 1.53 and 2.24 times of the base year demand in 2030 respectively. The projected sectoral energy demand along with demanding fuels will support the sustainable national energy planning process of the country for days to come.
Vehicular emissions have been playing a pivotal role in deteriorating air quality in many urban parts of Nepal causing adverse impacts upon the health of commuters and pedestrians attributed to severe respiratory diseases. Primary data such as the number of vehicles (N) were obtained using two-hour peak (8 am to 10 am) and two-hour nonpeak (1 pm to 3 pm) count, after which average annual vehicle kilometer (VKT) and fuel economy (F) required for emission load estimation were obtained from vehicle survey using the simple random sampling method, sampling size taken statistically under 5% margin of error. Secondary data in this study include emission factors and derived equations from a published article. The vehicular emission load of Bhaktapur Municipality were found to be 3,310 tons/year including CO2, CO, NOx, HC, and PM10 of which CO2 accounts for 94.36% of total emissions followed by CO (4.39%), HC (0.72%), NOx (0.35%), and PM10 (0.18%), respectively. Significant positive correlation was found (r = 0.92,
p
=
0.002
) between CO2 and PM10 (r = 0.87,
p
=
0.009
), between CO2 and NOx (r = 0.90,
p
=
0.004
), between CO and HC (r = 0.74,
p
=
0.05
), and between NOx and PM10, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the introduction of electric vehicles at different rates within the municipality can reduce the emissions to a significant amount. Exponential growth in vehicular gaseous pollutants potent to jeopardize the environment and welfare can become inevitable in the future if clean energy technology is not promoted early.
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