Background Patients with radioactive iodine (131I, RAI)-refractory locally advanced or metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) have a poor prognosis due to the lack of effective treatment options. Methods This multicentre, randomized (1:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study (DECISION; NCT00984282) investigated sorafenib (400 mg orally twice-daily) in patients with RAI-refractory locally advanced or metastatic DTC progressing within the past 14 months. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) by central independent review. Patients receiving placebo could crossover to open-label sorafenib upon progression. Archival tumour tissue was examined for BRAF and RAS mutations. Serum thyroglobulin was measured at baseline and each visit. Findings A total of 417 patients were randomized to sorafenib (n=207) or placebo (n=210). Sorafenib treatment significantly improved PFS compared with placebo (hazard ratio, 0·59; 95% confidence interval, 0·45–0·76; P<0·0001; median 10·8 vs. 5·8 months, respectively). PFS improvement was seen in all pre-specified clinical and genetic biomarker subgroups irrespective of mutation status. There was no statistically significant difference in overall survival (hazard ratio, 0·80; 95% confidence interval, 0·54–1·19; P=0·14); median overall survival had not been reached and 150 (71%) patients receiving placebo crossed over to sorafenib upon progression. Response rates (all partial responses) were 12·2% (24/196; sorafenib) and 0·5% (1/201; placebo; p<0·0001). Median thyroglobulin levels increased in the placebo group, and decreased, then paralleled treatment responses in the sorafenib group. Most adverse events were grade 1 or 2. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events in the sorafenib arm were hand–foot skin reaction (76·3%), diarrhoea (68·6%), alopecia (67·1%), and rash/desquamation (50·2%). Interpretation Sorafenib significantly improved PFS compared with placebo in patients with progressive RAI-refractory DTC. Adverse events were consistent with the known sorafenib safety profile. These results suggest that sorafenib represents a new treatment option for patients with progressive RAI-refractory DTC.

The adaptive value of carry-over effects, the persistence of induced phenotypes for several generations despite the change in the conditions that first induced these phenotypes, is studied in the framework of a simple model. Three different organismal strategies-non-inducible (genetic), completely inducible (plastic), and intermediate (carry-over)-are compared in fitness terms within three different environments. Analytical results and numerical simulations show that carry-over effects can have an advantage in stochastic environments even over organisms with high adaptive plasticity. We argue that carry-over effects represent an adaptive mechanism on the ecological timescale that fills the gap between short-term individual adaptations and long-term evolutionary adaptations. An extension of the concept of plasticity to incorporate the time dimension and include the stability of induced phenotypes through both clonal and sexual generations, is suggested.

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