No abstract

De acuerdo con el último informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático, las actividades humanas son las principales responsables del calentamiento global observado en las últimas décadas y se debe al incremento en la concentración atmosférica de gases de efecto invernadero. Este proceso ya está causando cambios en la distribución geográfica de las especies, así como alteraciones en la fenología. En tal contexto, es interesante estudiar las posibles tendencias de cambio que podrían presentar la flora y fauna para hacer frente a las nuevas condiciones del medio ambiente. En este trabajo se exploran los posibles cambios en la composición de los principales tipos de vegetación en el estado de Veracruz, México, ante un escenario de cambio climático, mediante el análisis de los patrones de alteración geográfica y ecológica de un grupo de 51 especies comúnmente asociadas al bosque tropical perennifolio, el bosque de coníferas y el bosque mesófilo de montaña, presentes en el estado. El enfoque adoptado se basa en la técnica de modelado de nicho ecológico realizado con el Algoritmo Genético para la Producción de grupos de Reglas (GARP) y variables climatológicas estimadas para un escenario A2 que corresponde a una humanidad que genera emisiones medias-altas y derivan de proyecciones hechas a partir de las condiciones actuales hacia el año 2050. Los resultados obtenidos para la superficie actual de la vegetación del estado de Veracruz sugieren una afectación potencial de 53% del área de distribución para el bosque tropical perennifolio, de 16% para el bosque de coníferas y de 49% para el bosque mesófilo de montaña. Además, apuntan a que algunas especies tienen alta probabilidad de resultar extirpadas de la entidad bajo las condiciones esperadas en el 2050, mientras que otras encontrarán las condiciones adecuadas para incrementar su distribución.

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “Establishment of Aedes aegypti (L.) in mountainous regions in Mexico: Increasing number of population at risk of mosquito-borne disease and future climate conditions” (M. Equihua, S. Ibáñez-Bernal, G. Benítez, I. Estrada-Contreras, C.A. Sandoval-Ruiz, F.S. Mendoza-Palmero, 2016) [1]. This article provides presence records in shapefile format used to generate maps of potential distribution of Aedes aegypti with different climate change scenarios as well as each of the maps obtained in raster format. In addition, tables with values of potential distribution of the vector as well as the average values of probability of presence including data of the mosquito incidence along the altitudinal range.

No abstract

Species that coexist nowadays won´t necessary match their distributions in the future due to different climate suitability. The aim of this study was to identify potential distribution areas where the bark beetle Dendroctonus adjunctus and six of its host tree species overlap under different climate change scenarios. Potential distribution maps were built with species presence data using the MaxLike R library. For each projection, we used WorldClim bioclimatic variables, current and future (2050, 2070) condition climate data, two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and three general circulation models. The results show that the projected current potential distribution area of the bark beetle extends over 216,000 km2. This potential distribution range spans across 28 of the 32 Mexican states, eight of which have not yet reported the insect’s presence. Of the 72 overlapping maps that we made, the largest covers more than 118,000 km2 for Pinus duranguensis, while all future projections show a reduction in spatial coincidence. Given future climatic scenarios, D. adjunctus will probably reach higher altitudinal sites. The information contained in this study can be used to identify areas to prioritize monitoring, management, plant sanitation treatment, and reforestation strategies in Mexican pine forests.

Corn (Zea mays L.) is the basis of the Mexican diet. In this country, corn is produced by about 2.5 million small farmers and grown on 8.4 million hectares in rainfed agriculture. However, its production is not enough to meet demand. Climate change may negatively impact corn production, putting Mexico's food security at risk. The main goal of this work was to identify which corn races can find favorable environmental conditions in the future under climate change scenarios in the Sierra Madre Oriental. The Sierra Madre is a region highly vulnerable to climate change; in 2020, corn production was 5,785,561 Mg yr −1 of which 49.87% was from rainfed agriculture.These corn races could be proposed to replace others not tolerant to climate change, mainly at high altitudes. Potential distribution models were obtained for seven highly productive maize races. The projections were generated with the MaxLike algorithm using representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios to 2050 and 2070. In addition, general circulation models (CCSM4, GISS.E2-R, and MPI-ESM-LR) were used. Our results show that the Tabloncillo and Tuxpeño races could slightly increase their potential distribution in the future. Both corn races present the highest number of municipalities with adequate environmental conditions for their future presence. As a strategy for adaptation to climate change, it is proposed to replace or complement maize races in high-altitude areas with other tropical ones with greater tolerance to high temperatures, such as the Tuxpeño race. INTRODUCTIONClimate change represents a risk to agricultural production due to the negative impact it would have on yields and the loss of suitable conditions for growing cereal grains (

El maíz es un alimento muy importante para los mexicanos y muchas de las comidas más representativas del país están hechas a base de este grano. Hoy día está seriamente amenazado por el cambio climático, ya que las actividades humanas han aumentado los gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera, modificando el clima del planeta. Estos cambios ambientales pueden poner en riesgo el cultivo y la productividad del maíz en todo México e incidir de manera negativa en la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Este trabajo muestra que, para 2050, la raza de maíz Mushito podría tener una reducción en su distribución potencial, mientras que la raza Tuxpeño podría tener un incremento.