The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the influencing factors in the data set created with the help of canonical correlation in the factors affecting the purchase or sale of agricultural lands in certain neighborhoods in the Dulkadiroğlu district of Kahramanmaraş province and the most effective factor or factors compared to the others. For this, a survey was conducted with the parcel owners in the determined neighborhoods and a data set of 1000 people was created. As a result of the data obtained, the first data set of the study, in which the canonical correlation method was used, was the slope and irrigation status of the land, the average productivity rate of the land, and the presence of tractors and equipment used in the land, among the factors affecting the purchase or sale of agricultural lands; land parcel size, land purchase or sale price and for what purpose the land was bought or sold were also the second data set. The rate of canonical correlation coefficient in the data sets created according to the estimation results was found to be 40.32%. In the data set we compared, the average productivity of the land was determined in the first data set with the highest effect, while in the second data set it was determined as the purpose for which the land was bought or sold
Bu çalışmanın amacı Kahramanmaraş ilinin Dulkadiroğlu ilçesindeki belirli mahallelerin tarım arazilerinin alım veya satımlarında etkili olan faktörleri ve bu faktörlerin etki derecelerini belirlemektir. Bunun için belirlenen mahallelerdeki parsel sahiplerine ait veriler elde edilerek bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Anket yardımı ile belirlenen mahallerdeki arazi sahiplerinden elde edilen veriler neticesinde two-step kümeleme yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmanın, tarım arazilerinin alım veya satımında etkili olan faktörler, satın almada veya satmada ne gibi faydası veya zararı olduğu ile ilgili model kurulmuştur ve bu modeldeki bağımlı değişken, bağımsız değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymak için ekonometrik test Engle Granger iki aşamalı tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Alım-satıma anket ile dâhil olmuş tüm arazi sahiplerinin verdiği cevaplar doğrultusunda bütün arazilerde: Ankete katılan çiftçilerin %69.68’inin traktör ve ekipmanları varlığı, %94.95’inin arazileri sulu ve düzlük olduğu, ekilen mahsul sayısı 9, en yakın yerleşim alanına olan uzaklığı ortalama 19 km ve arazi alım veya satım fiyatları, anket ile belirlenmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre ankette belirlenen arazi alım-satımda etkili olan faktörler içinde etki dereceleri belirtilen faktörler: arazi satın alırken; %62.54’ü arazi yatırım ilişkisi varlığı, %14.74’ü mirasçılar arası ilişkiler, %12.35’i hayvancılık faaliyetleri ve %10.35’i de hazineden özel mülke geçişi olurken arazi sattığında da; %39.57’si arazi kamulaştırması, %38.25’i maddi yetersizlik, %8.70 mirasçılar arası ilişkiler, %6.06 göç, %5.80 tarımı bırakma ve %1.58’i de arazi verimliliğindeki değişiklikler ile arazi sahiplerini etkilemiştir.
In this study, it is to determine the relationship between the size of the agricultural land planted between 2016-2020 and its average yield in Afşin, Andırın, Dulkadiroğlu, Ekinözü, Elbistan, Göksun, Nurhak, Onikisubat, Pazarcık, Türkoğlu and Çağlayancerit districts of Kahramanmaraş province. For this, according to the data obtained from TUIK, 5 products selected in grain, which are thought to be produced more widely in the region, are respectively; Wheat, corn, barley, chickpea and sugar beet, while the others are probably 5 products selected in fruit, respectively; Apple, cherries, strawberries, mulberries and walnuts and others, which are considered to be produced more than 5 vegetables selected, respectively; pepper, cucumber, acur, tomato and garlic. For the estimation results obtained in the research, VAR (vector autoregressive model) analysis, which is an econometric program, and unit root test were used. According to the estimation results, it was determined that there is a 0.99 correlation between the size of the agricultural land planted and the amount of yield in selected products according to the years in Kahramanmaraş districts between the years 2016-2020, and as a result of the VAR analysis, the most appropriate delay size was the 10th delay. In addition, the average productivity of 1 decare of total cultivated land in the districts according to the selected years is 0.6909 in Afşin, 0.4397 in Andırın, 0.6732 in Dulkadiroğlu, 0.4057 in Ekinözü, 0.6371 in Elbistan, 0.5208 in Göksun, 0.3068 in Nurhak, Onikişubat. 0.5542 tons in Pazarcık, 0.5891 tons in Türkoğlu, 0.6827 tons in Çağlayancerit and 0.6046 tons in Çağlayancerit.
In this study, a modeling study was carried out on the weekly average values of henna partridge egg production. For this purpose, weekly average of henna partridge egg yields of 148 days from the herd consisting of 320 breeders were taken and cubic spline, Gompertz, Logistic, Richard, Schunute, Quadratic Spline, McNally and Gamma equations were used in the modeling. In the comparison of the goodness of fit of the equations, The Coefficient of Determination, Mean Square Error, Durbin-Watson and AIC (Akaike Information Criteria) values were taken into account. As a result of the study, Logistic (HKO: 12.4, R^2: 0.994, AIC: 43.56, DW: 2.09), Cubic Spline (HKO: 10.56, R^2: 0.996, AIC: 46.55, DW: 1.95) and McNally (HKO: 11.02, R^2: 0.996, AIC: 48.67, DW: 2.11) models were found to have the best results with similar results. It was concluded that the Schnute (HKO: 11.24, R^2: 0.990, AIC: 136.51, DW: 0.49), Gamma (HKO: 24.67, R^2: 0.991, AIC: 69.89, DW: 2.95) and Quadratic Spline (HKO: 10.43, R^2: 0.946, AIC: 149.34, DW: 2.97) models had the worst results.
In this study, it was aimed to determine the amount of wheat field planted in Turkey and the structural breaks in wheat yield in the specified years. The data set obtained for this purpose was obtained from the wheat production and wheat cultivation area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 published by the Soil Masülleri Office (TMO). . According to the estimation results; Since the data set obtained from the wheat planting area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given table were left from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2014, there was a structural break between these years. It was determined by the analysis that there was a structural break between these years, since the data set was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given chart were exceeded from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2015.
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