Market forecasts predict a potentially large market for a quiet supersonic business jet provided that several technical hurdles are overcome prior to fielding such a vehicle. In order to be acceptable, the QSJ must be able to fly at supersonic speeds over land and operate from regional airports while meeting government noise and emissions requirements. Physics based analysis tools are used in conjunction with a Response Surface metamodeling approach to create an environment in which the performance, economics, and environmental impact of the aircraft can be studied as a function of design and mission parameters. Through the use of this environment, the designer is able to rapidly explore the entire concept space by dynamically modifying the configuration, engine cycle, and requirements. Results obtained using this exploration tool indicate that it may be possible to meet emissions and noise requirements, but that technology infusion will be required in order to meet all performance and economic goals. Finally, this same physics-based environment was used to assess the impact of a portfolio of technologies on the system's acceptability.
In today's business climate, aerospace companies are more than ever in need of rational methods and techniques that provide insights as to the best strategies which may be pursued for increased profitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making remains prevalent due to the absence of analytical methods capable of capturing and forecasting future needs. Negotiations between airframe and engine manufacturers could benefit greatly from a structured environment that facilitates efficient, rational, decision-making. Creation of such an environment can be developed through a parametric physics-based, stochastic formulation that uses meta-models to expedite the process. This paper describes such an approach in order to demonstrate the types of insights that might be gained as an engine manufacturer tries to forecast the effects of uncertainties and future vehicle requirements on engine related characteristics for the design of a hypothetical regional business jet. Game theory concepts are suggested as a potential means by which one can attach business payoffs to the selection of any engine design point.
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