Purpose This paper aims to analytically show that in an over-lapping-generation (OLG) model, low earning cohorts bear unwanted risk and absorb higher economic cost than high earning cohorts do. Design/methodology/approach This paper aims to consider the individual's risk appetite, using a simple utility function, based on consumptions and discount rates in each period. This paper calibrates the model according to teh Israeli pension system as a representative of a small open developed organization for economic cooperation and development country. Israel is considered as unique case study in the pension landscape, as it implements almost pure defined contribution pension scheme with continuous trend of pension market capitalization (Giorno and Jacques, 2016). Hence, this study finds Israel suitable for examining the theoretical mix of pension scheme. That model enables exploring combined solutions for adequate old age benefits, involving the first and the second pension pillars, under fiscal constraints. Findings It comes out that for risk-averse individuals, the optimal degree of funding is negatively correlated to asset returns' volatility and positively correlated to earning decile level. The neglect of risk and individual's current earning level will thus overstate the contribution level and funded percentage from total contributions. Moreover, even in an economy with minimum government intervention, and highly developed private pension fund with high average of rate of return, the authors find it is optimal that the pension system contains a sizeable unfunded pillar. This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. Practical implications The model presented in this paper could be implemented in countries with mix pension systems, as an alternative to public social transfers or means tested, alleviating poverty and inequality in old age. Additionally, this model could raise the public awareness of the financial sustainability of the unfunded pay-as-you-go pillar to diversify financial risk in pension systems, especially for low earning cohort in society. Social implications One area of research that is particularly relevant in this context concerns the issue of alleviating poverty and income inequality. It is often stressed that the prevention of old age poverty is among the central targets of well-designed pension system (Holzmann and Hinz, 2005). The conceptualization of minimum pension guarantee used in this composition allows to clearly capturing the notion of such a poverty and social targets as an integral part of the pension system rolls. Originality/value This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. That comes to realize through the level of total contribution rates and funded share that are generally optimal for high earning cohorts but not for low earning cohorts. This paper identifies that the effect of anomaly is most significant in a market characterized with high income-inequality level. This paper finds that imposing intra-generational risk sharing instrument in the form of minimum pension guarantee can re-balance pension design among different earning cohorts. This solution demonstrates balancing effect on the entire economy.

Purpose: This paper offers an explanation to pension systems cyclical reforms, based on Central East Europe (CEE) countries experience over the last three decades. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper develops a theory of risk sharing process and demonstrate it based on global experience over the last two decades. Finding: During the transition to funded pension design, the government not only transfers longevity and fiscal risks to the individual but also absorbs risks transferred from the public, where each market actor transfers undiversifiable risks to the other. The outcomes of this risk path realized in financial transfers, such as social security, means-tested and minimum pension guarantee. Consequently, funded pension designs naturally converge to a new landscape paradigm of risk sharing, including intergenerational and intra-generational play. Financial crises such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic foster the convergence process. Practical Implications Governments and central planners have to consider risk sharing mechanisms to ensure sustainability of pension designs during the transitions to funded schemes. Originality/Value: To the best of the author's knowledge, no other paper attempted to study the bi-path ways of risk during the pension transition and discover the mutual expectation of the pension market actors. There is a vast literature of risk sharing study in comparison between funded and unfunded pension schemes.

Using funded and unfunded pillars, the optimal pension structure is estimated using an over-lapping generation model, calibrated to the average OECD countries. While simulating different pillar sizes, a socio-economic characteristic was revealed in which low-earning groups are prone to unexpected market risks than high-earning cohorts and support a larger contribution than better-off individuals. This led to high contribution rates for funded pillars and low contributions rates for social security pillars. This suboptimal allocation leads to inefficient hedging capability for the pension portfolio. An alternative is a minimum pension guarantee as an efficient system stabilizer as it rebalances the economic cost among different earning cohorts. However, the guarantee might be expensive to implement if not capitalized early in the working phases in an era of aging populations, low birth rates, and deep financial crisis.

Purpose: This paper aims to empirically examine the adequacy of the future benefits of the funded pension scheme. Design/methodology/approach: This study investigates a large real data sample from the largest pension fund in Israel and simulates expected benefits using a pension simulator. Findings: We found that even with relatively high market returns, the shift of pension provision from defined benefit (DB) to DC entails a significant shift of risk from capital to labor and might lead elderly participants to poverty during their retirement phase. We find Israel's pension system to be a unique playground for exploring an almost pure defined contribution (DC) pension system with a continuous trend toward capitalization and liberalization. Practical implications: This paper details the need to implement risk-sharing mechanisms in funded schemes, which provide a risk cushion against market fluctuations and alleviate income inequality and poverty. Originality value: Due to the pandemic crisis in 2020, we also showed that the expected pension benefits were vulnerable to financial, career, and systemic shocks.

This study introduces multiplayer game in the modern pension market. Particularly, this study claims that low earners and high earners have different interests when playing in funded pension market scheme. This differentiating is enabled by avoiding the entire society as a single earning cohort. This study using financial position, demonstrates a socio-economic anomaly in the funded pension system, which is in favor of high-earning cohorts at the expense of low-earning cohorts. This anomaly is realized by a lack of insurance and exposure to financial and systemic risks. Furthermore, the anomaly could lead to a pension re-reform back to an unfunded scheme system, due mostly to political pressure. This study found that a minimum pension guarantee is a rebalance mechanism for this anomaly, which increases the probability of a sustainable pension scheme. Nowadays when countries try to balance between social expenses and awaking financial markets, one may find this theory highly relevant. It is obviously one of the cases where social targets meat financial equilibrium and here they are in the same side. Specifically, it is argued that implementing the guarantee with an intra-generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most efficient way to reduce the effect of this abnormality.

This study offers in-depth knowledge of the socio-economic characteristics of funded pension projects. It is based on the financial position of pension market actors during the transition of the pension system to a more funded capitalized scheme, mainly through the option benefit model. This is possible due to the fact that the economy is not viewed as a single earning cohort. The study analytically demonstrates a socio-economic anomaly in the funded pension system, which is in favor of high-earning cohorts at the expense of low-earning cohorts. This anomaly is realized due to lack of insurance and exposure to financial and systemic risks. Furthermore, the anomaly might lead to the pension re-reform back to an unfunded scheme, mainly due to political pressure. A minimum pension guarantee was found to be a rebalance mechanism to this anomaly, which increases the probability of a sustainable pension scheme. Specifically, it is argued that implementing a guarantee with an intra-generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most effective way to reduce the impact of this abnormality. Moreover, the paper shows the convergence process toward implementing a minimum pension guarantee in many countries that have capitalized their pension systems during the last three decades, in particular in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe.

In this paper, we explain the evolution of pension systems due to political pressure. Such pressure has led to pension reversals in recent years in many of the countries of Central East Europe (CEE) and Latin America. We base our theory on exchange options and finance positions. We show that during the transition to a funded pension scheme, high earners benefit from the change, while the low earners' position worsens. This type of unstable position will eventually lead to pension reversals. We suggest the minimum pension guarantee as a mechanism to create a financial equilibrium to stabilize the pension market. Based on the option characteristics, we analyse the boundaries of that equilibrium. We find that high-income inequality and poverty foster the convergence to a mixed pension scheme or the implementation of a minimum pension guarantee. In the second part of this paper, we show how the minimum pension guarantee has accounted for a major part of the pension designs across OECD countries. Funded schemes that did not implement an unfunded mechanism were reversed to put more weight on unfunded pillars. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-022-00236-z.

We examine the future benefits of the Israeli privatized pension system, which is considered as a model of transition to funded pension systems worldwide. This research is based on an extensive database obtained from one of the largest traditional private funds in the market. The results paint a concerning picture regarding the adequacy of benefits and quality of life in old age. Israel’s radical privatized pension model signals a warning to other nations. We show that, even with high returns, most individuals cannot handle the magnitude of financial and labor risks accumulated during their career and retirement. We recommend more balanced government intervention as well as the use of risk-sharing mechanisms such as providing minimum pension guarantee and strengthening the unfunded social security pillar.