The aim of this paper is to examine how inflation volatility affects economic growth in a small open economy. To reach this goal, a stochastic macroeconomic model with a financial sector and incomplete financial markets (due to the inclusion of jumps) is developed. It is assumed that the general price level is driven by mixed diffusion-jump process, that is, a Brownian motion governs inflation and a Poisson process guides unexpected and sudden jumps in the price index. The economic growth rate is endogenously determined, in the equilibrium, as a function of parameters of the inflation process.
Impacto de la captación, el crédito y el acceso a los servicios financieros… Impacto de la captación, el crédito y el acceso a los servicios financieros en la actividad económica en México: Panel dinámico por entidades federativas y sectores económicos Impact of collection, credit and access to financial services on economic activity in Mexico: Dynamic panel by federal entities and economic sectors
ResumenEn esta parte de la investigación sobre la dinámica de la Balanza de Pagos (BP) y el crecimiento económico de México se desarrollan y estiman varios modelos, los cuales fueron discutidos en la primera parte del estudio. El objetivo es mostrar evidencia empírica sobre el impacto del sector externo en el crecimiento económico. El análisis econométrico de series de tiempo que se realiza en este trabajo examina relaciones de largo y corto plazo, en esté ultimo caso se observa la existencia de desequilibrios que se corrigen con ajustes parciales. Asimismo, se analiza la persistencia de choques a través de las funciones de impulso-respuesta, se estudia la descomposición de la varianza y se realizan pruebas de causalidad de Granger. Los resultados sugieren que las medidas monetarias no son laúnica opción para corregir los desequilibrios de la BP. Específicamente, la respuesta a la pregunta planteada en esta investigación es que la dinámica de los componentes de la BP afectaron negativamente al PIB en 1980-1995 y posteriormente se presentó un efecto positivo de la balanza comercial hacia el PIB, lo cual indica que podrían mejorarse las condiciones para que el sector externo sea efectivamente una fuente de crecimiento económico.
AbstractIn this part of the research on the dynamics of the balance of payments (BP) and economic growth in Mexico several models, which were discussed in the first part, will be developed and estimated. The goal is to show empirical evidence on the impact of the external sector in economic growth. The econometric analysis of time series carried out in this work examines a long-term and a short-term relationship, the latter case shows the existence of imbalances that are corrected with partial adjustments. Moreover, shock persistency is analyzed through impulse-response functions, and the variance decomposition as well as the Granger causality tests is examined. The results suggest that monetary measures are not the only option to correct imbalances in the BP. Specifically, the answer to the question posed in this research is that the dynamic of BP components negatively affected GDP in 1980-1995 and subsequently there was a positive effect of the trade balance on GDP, indicating that the conditions could be improved for the external sector becomes effectively a source of economic growth.
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