Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins have been more and more studied during the last decades with regard to environment and health issues. More recently the consequences of climate change reinforced the need for research in view of a better management of cyanobacteria blooms. In this context the exploitation of the water quality survey of 26 recreational lakes in Brittany (north western France) between 2004 and 2011 is reported in this paper in order to encompass spatial and interannual patterns of cyanobacteria development at a regional scale. Starting from weekly data principally acquired during summertime, the links between cyanobacteria cell densities, toxin occurrences and interannual meteorological factors can give insights on the potential evolution of cyanobacterial crisis in the future. This study is part of a project aiming at a better understanding of potentially toxic cyanobacteria crisis occurrences in recreational waters, in order to improve predictive monitoring routines.

Cyanobacteria and their toxins are known as a health hazard in recreative and distributed waters. Monitoring data from 2004 to 2011 were collected at regional scale to characterize exposition parameters to microcystins in Brittany (Western France). The data show that cyanobacteria populations are experiencing a composition shift leading to a longer duration of cell densities higher than WHO alert levels 2 and 3. Microcystins however appear to be more frequently detected with subacute concentrations in low cell density samples than in high cell density samples or during bloom episodes. Positive relations are described between microcystin concentrations, detection frequencies and cyanobacteria biovolumes, allowing for a novel definition of alert levels and decision framework following WHO recommendations.