A 47-year record of gridded data covering Africa south of the Sahara was used to document the spatial and seasonal patterns of the correlation between precipitation and sea-surface temperatures (SST) in key tropical areas, as depicted by the NIN 0 O3, South Atlantic and North Atlantic indices. El Niñ o -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is confirmed as playing a dominant part in northeastern, eastern and southern Africa. However, its impact is also found over the Sahel during the northern summer, and other parts of the Gulf of Guinea region outside this season, a hitherto poorly documented feature. Over these two areas, ENSO and Atlantic SST (predominantly South Atlantic) contribute to different parts of the rainfall variance. The correlation with South Atlantic SST appears as a south -north dipole (positive/negative correlation) which shifts northward following the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) translation between the northern low-sun and high-sun periods. A typing of the seasonal correlation patterns and a mapping of the multiple correlation coefficients are carried out in order to synthesize the space-time impacts of the three SST indices. Decadal-scale changes affect the strength of the teleconnections with both Atlantic and East Pacific SST, as reflected for instance by a small rise of the correlation with the NIN 0 O3 index since [1970][1971][1972][1973][1974][1975] in the Sahel and southern Africa, and additional shifts for the Atlantic Ocean, but the main patterns remain generally apparent over the whole period.The circulation anomalies associated with the teleconnections were assessed using National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. A study of the dataset accuracy in depicting long-term climatic variations revealed that a major shift, mainly artificial, is found in 1967-1968 in the time-series of most of the variables. The rest of the work thus concentrated on the 1968-1997 period. A number of changes in east-west circulation patterns have been found to be associated to ENSO variations. Over West Africa, El Niñ o events tend to result in enhanced northeasterlies/reduced monsoon flow, coupled to weakened upper easterlies, and hence dry conditions over West Africa close to the surface position of the ITCZ, in July -September, as well as January-March. Over the southwestern Indian Ocean, the positive equatorial temperature/geopotential height anomalies, which at 200 hPa accompany El Niñ o events, are conducive to an eastward shift of the mid-latitude upper troughs, thus being detrimental to summer rainfall over South Africa. Abnormally wet 'short rains' in East Africa can be accounted for by an ENSO-forced weakening of the equatorial Walker-type (east -west) cell which is found over the Indian Ocean during that season. By contrast, the impact of South Atlantic warmings is mostly shown in low-level dynamics, as exemplified by the weakened trades and monsoon flow which directly result in a southward shift of the ITCZ. The com...
The relation between rainfall and the Normalized Di erence Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Africa south of 15ß S ( 1983± 1988) is studied. For 115 1ß by 1ß grid-points, the spatial distribution of annual NDVI and rainfall means is highly comparable. Both parameters have overall decreasing values from Mozambique to South-Western Africa. The strongest correlations occur when NDVI monthly values are compared with the bimonthly preceding rainfall amounts, attesting a time response of one to two months. At these time and space scales, NDVI does not appear to be sensitive to the seasonal and interannual rainfall variations in the Namib desert, South Namibia and western Cape Province. Along the Indian Ocean coast, it is weakly sensitive to the seasonal cycle only. It becomes largely sensitive to the seasonal cycle in Zimbabwe, and in South-Western Zambia. A high sensitivity to the interannual rainfall variability is only observed on the Southern African Plateau, around the Kalahari basin. Multivariate analyses show that geographical conditions of seasonal and interannual rainfall-NDVI associations strongly di er. While a sensitivity to seasonal rainfall is observed in areas where mean annual rainfall varies from 300 to 900 mm and where the contrast between wet and dry seasons is strong, the sensitivity to interannual rainfall anomalies is observed only for relative dry areas, where mean annual rainfall varies from 300 to 500 mm. In both cases, the relation is observed whatever the soil type or vegetation formation.
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