One constraint we face as economists is not being able to observe all the relevant variables required to test our theories or make policy prescriptions. Laboratory techniques allow us to convert many variables (such as beliefs) that are unobservable in the field into observables. This article presents a survey of the literature on belief elicitation in laboratory experimental economics. We discuss several techniques available to elicit beliefs in an incentive-compatible manner and the problems involved in their use. We then look at how successful these techniques have been when employed in laboratory studies. We find that despite some problems, beliefs elicited in the laboratory are meaningful (i.e., they are generally used as the basis for behavior), and the process of eliciting beliefs seems not to be too intrusive. One hope for the future is that by eliciting beliefs, we may be able to develop better theories of belief formation.
This article studies the role of personality in choice under risk and uncertainty. We explore the hypothesis that personality plays a role in decision making in situations of uncertainty but not in situations of risk. In addition to offering support for this main hypothesis, we explore the various pathways through which personality exerts its influence. What we find is that in uncertain environments, where decision makers are able to acquire information about the unknown probability distributions they face, personality variables influence the type of information people acquire, which then influences their choice. Our experimental design brings in two novel aspects of choice under uncertainty: information acquisition and advice. The findings indicate that indeed, under uncertainty, personality matters for choice in a way it does not under risk. Furthermore, the results suggest that personality can play a role at multiple levels, such as people's preferences for certain types of information and the likelihood of following advice. (JEL C90, D03, D81)
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