Clear-air turbulence (CAT) has a large impact on the aviation sector. Our current understanding of how CAT may increase with climate change in future is largely based on simulations from CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). However, these models have now been superseded by high-resolution CMIP6 GCMs, which for the first time have grid lengths at which individual turbulence patches may start to be resolved. Here we use a multi-model approach to quantify projected moderate CAT changes over the North Atlantic using CMIP6 models. The influence of the model resolution on CAT projections is analysed. Twenty-one CAT diagnostics are used, in order to represent uncertainties in CAT production mechanisms. Each diagnostic responds differently in time, but the majority display an increase in moderate CAT between 1950 and 2050. Although winter is historically the most turbulent season, there is strong multi-model agreement that autumn and summer will have the greatest overall relative increase in CAT frequency. By 2050, summers are projected to become as turbulent as 1950 winters and autumns. The global-mean seasonal near-surface temperature is used as a comparative metric. For every 1 °C of global near-surface warming, autumn, winter, spring, and summer are projected to have an average of 14%, 9%, 9%, and 14% more moderate CAT, respectively. Our results confirm that the aviation sector should prepare for a more turbulent future.
<div> <p><span>Atmospheric turbulence has a serious, dangerous, and costly impact on aviation.&#160;</span><span>Turbulence makes up most weather-related in-flight&#160;accidents&#160;and costs</span><span>&#160;the global aviation sector up to&#160;US$1 billion every year.&#160;Upper level&#160;</span><span>turbulence can be broken down into four main types: Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT), Convectively Induced Turbulence (CIT), Near-Cloud Turbulence (NCT), and Mountain Wave Turbulence (MWT). Aviation is often impacted by CAT, which is not visible on radar and is therefore&#160;extremely&#160;hard to detect&#160;in advance of an encounter. Previous literature has shown that climate change is strengthening CAT globally, with increased severity particularly over the North Atlantic, a busy flight route, within the winter months. These findings have been based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models, which have now been superseded by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models with higher&#160;resolution.</span><span>&#160;</span></p> </div><div> <p><span>In this presentation we&#160;build&#160;and develop&#160;these previous findings&#160;further by&#160;usin</span><span>g the&#160;CMIP6&#160;HighResMIP&#160;PRIMAVERA simulations,&#160;</span><span>which have grid spacings&#160;from 135km to 25km. CAT has not previously&#160;been&#160;investigated with models that&#160;come this close to&#160;resolving&#160;individual patches of turbulence.&#160;Comparisons between several resolutions have given us a better understanding of&#160;how different climate models, and their grid spacings,&#160;represent turbulence.&#160;Despite some multidecadal and yearly variability, CAT&#160;is found&#160;to increase in&#160;frequency, in all turbulent severities,&#160;in&#160;time and&#160;with increased&#160;near-surface temperatures.&#160;Interestingly,&#160;atmosphere-only&#160;global climate&#160;models&#160;predict&#160;a&#160;smaller&#160;increase in CAT, in comparison to coupled atmosphere-ocean models.&#160;Our findings suggest&#160;that&#160;an increasing mean&#160;near-surface temperature over the North Atlantic&#160;will lead to&#160;further&#160;light to&#160;severe turbulence&#160;events,&#160;which results&#160;in extremely bumpy air travel, longer travel times,&#160;and increased&#160;CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.</span><span>&#160;</span></p> </div>
This session will provide ‘an introduction to mitigating solutions’ such as carbon sources and sinks, heat sources and sinks, and reducing our individual carbon footprints.
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