BackgroundThe Zika virus disease (ZVD) has had a huge impact on public health in Colombia for the numbers of people affected and the presentation of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly cases associated to ZVD.MethodsA retrospective descriptive study was carried out, we analyze the epidemiological situation of ZVD and its association with microcephaly and GBS during a 21-month period, from October 2015 to June 2017. The variables studied were: (i) ZVD cases, (ii) ZVD cases in pregnant women, (iii) laboratory-confirmed ZVD in pregnant women, (iv) ZVD cases associated with microcephaly, (v) laboratory-confirmed ZVD associated with microcephaly, and (vi) ZVD associated to GBS cases. Average number of cases, attack rates (AR) and proportions were also calculated. The studied variables were plotted by epidemiological weeks and months. The distribution of ZVD cases in Colombia was mapped across the time using Kernel density estimator and QGIS software; we adopted Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) and the Gaussian Kernel to estimate the number of Guillain Barre cases given the number of ZVD cases.ResultsOne hundred eight thousand eighty-seven ZVD cases had been reported in Colombia, including 19,963 (18.5%) in pregnant women, 710 (0.66%) associated with microcephaly (AR, 4.87 cases per 10,000 live births) and 453 (0.42%) ZVD associated to GBS cases (AR, 41.9 GBS cases per 10,000 ZVD cases). It appears the cases of GBS increased in parallel with the cases of ZVD, cases of microcephaly appeared 5 months after recognition of the outbreak. The kernel density map shows that throughout the study period, the states most affected by the Zika outbreak in Colombia were mainly San Andrés and Providencia islands, Casanare, Norte de Santander, Arauca and Huila. The KRR shows that there is no proportional relationship between the number of GBS and ZVD cases. During the cross validation, the RMSE achieved for the second order polynomial kernel, the linear kernel, the sigmoid kernel, and the Gaussian kernel are 9.15, 9.2, 10.7, and 7.2 respectively.ConclusionsThis study updates the epidemiological analysis of the ZVD situation in Colombia describes the geographical distribution of ZVD and shows the functional relationship between ZVD cases and GBS.

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This paper presents CodeRAnts, a new recommendation method based on a collaborative searching technique and inspired on the ant colony metaphor. This method aims to fill the gap in the current state of the matter regarding recommender systems for software reuse, for which prior works present two problems. The first is that, recommender systems based on these works cannot learn from the collaboration of programmers and second, outcomes of assessments carried out on these systems present low precision measures and recall and in some of these systems, these metrics have not been evaluated. The work presented in this paper contributes a recommendation method, which solves these problems. Keywords:Recommender Systems on Software Engineering, recommendation method based on collaborative searching, software reuse, open source software, ant colony. RESUMENEste artículo presenta CodeRAnts: un nuevo método de recomendación basado en la técnica de búsqueda colaborativa e inspirada en la metáfora de la colonia de hormigas. Este método es propuesto con el objetivo de llenar el vacío en el estado del arte en cuanto a los sistemas de recomendación diseñados para reutilizar software, cuyos trabajos previos presentan dos problemas. El primero, es que los sistemas de recomendación basados en esos trabajos no pueden aprender de la colaboración de los programadores, y segundo, que los resultados de las pruebas realizados sobre estos sistemas presentan medidas bajas de precisión y remembranza, incluso, en algunos de estos sistemas no se hizo una evaluación de estas métricas. La contribución de este trabajo es un método de recomendación que resuelva dichos problemas.Palabras clave: Sistemas de recomendación para ingeniería de software, método de recomendación basado en la búsqueda colaborativa, reutilización de software, software de fuente abierta y colonia de hormigas.

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In this paper, we address the following research question: Is feasibility to use an artificial intelligence system to predict the risk of student failure in a course based solely on their performance in prerequisite courses? Adopting a machine learning-based quantitative approach, we implement Course Prophet, the prototype of a predictive system that maps the input variables representing student performance to the target variable, i.e., the risk of course failure. We evaluate multiple machine learning methods and find that the Gaussian process with Matern kernel outperforms other methods, achieving the highest accuracy and a favorable trade-off between precision and recall. We conduct this research in the context of the students pursuing a Bachelor’s degree in Systems Engineering at the University of Córdoba, Colombia. In this context, we focus on predicting the risk of failing the Numerical Methods course. In conclusion, the main contribution of this research is the development of Course Prophet, providing an efficient and accurate tool for predicting student failure in the Numerical Methods course based on their academic history in prerequisite courses.