The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic worldwide. Countries have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to slow down the spread. This study proposes an agent-based model that simulates the spread of COVID-19 among the inhabitants of a city. The agent-based model can be accommodated for any location by integrating parameters specific to the city. The simulation gives the number of total COVID-19 cases. Considering each person as an agent susceptible to COVID-19, the model causes infected individuals to transmit the disease via various actions performed every hour. The model is validated by comparing the simulation to the real data of Ford County, KS, USA. Different interventions, including contact tracing, are applied on a scaled-down version of New York City, USA, and the parameters that lead to a controlled epidemic are determined. Our experiments suggest that contact tracing via smartphones with more than 60% of the population owning a smartphone combined with city-wide lockdown results in the effective reproduction number ( R t ) to fall below 1 within 3 weeks of intervention. For 75% or more smartphone users, new infections are eliminated, and the spread is contained within 3 months of intervention. Contact tracing accompanied with early lockdown can suppress the epidemic growth of COVID-19 completely with sufficient smartphone owners. In places where it is difficult to ensure a high percentage of smartphone ownership, tracing only emergency service providers during a lockdown can go a long way to contain the spread. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s12559-020-09801-w)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has had an unprecedented effect, especially among under-resourced minority communities. Surveillance of those at high risk is critical for preventing and controlling the pandemic. We must better understand the relationships between COVID-19-related cases or deaths and characteristics in our most vulnerable population that put them at risk to target COVID-19 prevention and management efforts. Population characteristics strongly related to United States (US) county-level data on COVID-19 cases and deaths during all stages of the pandemic were identified from the onset of the epidemic and included county-level socio-demographic and comorbidities data, as well as daily meteorological modeled observation data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the NARR high spatial resolution model to assess the environment. Advanced machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify outbreaks (geographic clusters of COVID-19) and included spatiotemporal risk factors and COVID-19 vaccination efforts, especially among vulnerable and underserved communities. COVID-19 outcomes were found to be negatively associated with the number of people vaccinated and positively associated with age, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and the minority population. There was also a strong positive correlation between unauthorized immigrants and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Meteorological variables were also investigated, but correlations with COVID-19 were relatively weak. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact across the US population among vulnerable and minority communities. Findings also emphasize the importance of vaccinations and tailored public health initiatives (e.g., mask mandates, vaccination) to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and the number of COVID-19 related deaths across all populations.
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally. Only three cases in Bangladesh were reported on March 8, 2020. Here, we aim to predict the epidemic progression for 1 year under different scenarios in Bangladesh. We extracted the number of daily confirmed cases from March 8 to July 20, 2020. We considered the suspected-infected-removed (SIR) model and performed a maximum likelihood-based grid search to determine the removal rate (ɣ). The transmission was modeled as a stochastic random walk process, and sequential Monte Carlo simulation was run 100 times with bootstrap fits to infer the transmission rate (β) and R t. According to the simulation, the (real) peak daily incidence of 3,600 would be followed by a steady decline, reaching below 1,000 in late January 2021. Thus, the model predicted that there would still be more than 300 cases/day even after a year. However, with proper interventions, a much steeper decline would be achieved following the peak. If we apply a combined (0.8β, 1.2ɣ) intervention, there would be less than 100 cases by mid-October, only around five odd cases at the beginning of the year 2021, and zero cases in early March 2021. The predicted total number of deaths (in status quo) after 1 year would be 8,533 which would reduce to 3,577 if combined (0.8β, 1.2ɣ) intervention is applied. We have also predicted the ideal number of tests that Bangladesh should perform and based on that redid the whole simulation. The outcome, though worse, would be manageable with interventions according to the simulation.
Highlights Understanding the characteristics of spatiotemporal clustering of the COVID-19 epidemic and R0 is critical in effectively preventing and controlling the pandemic. Temperature profile played a significant role in the spatiotemporal clustering of the COVID-19 epidemic in China The increase in temperature increases the R0 value Temperatures had more contribution towards the transmission of COVID-19 than population age in China.
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