SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including

Background: The European IDEFICS (Identification and prevention of dietary-and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants) study was set up to determine the aetiology of overweight, obesity and related disorders in children, and to develop and evaluate a tailored primary prevention programme. Objective: This paper focuses on the aetiological element of the multicentre study, the measures and examinations, sociodemographic characteristics of the study sample and proportions of participation. Design: Prospective cohort study with an embedded intervention study that started with a baseline survey in eight countries in [2007][2008]. Subjects and measurements: Baseline participants of the prospective cohort study were 16 224 children aged 2-9 years. Parents reported sociodemographic, behavioural, medical, nutritional and other lifestyle data for their children and families. Examinations of children included anthropometry, blood pressure, fitness, accelerometry, DNA from saliva and physiological markers in blood and urine. The built environment, sensory taste perception and other mechanisms of children's food choices and consumer behaviour were studied in subgroups. Results: Between 1507 and 2567, children with a mean age of 6.0 years and an even sex distribution were recruited from each country. Of them, 82% lived in two-parent families. The distribution of standardised income levels differed by study sample, with low-income groups being strongly represented in Cyprus, Italy and Germany. At least one 24-h dietary recall was obtained for two-thirds of the children. Blood pressure and anthropometry were assessed in more than 90%. A 3-day accelerometry was performed in 46%, motor fitness was assessed in 41%, cardiorespiratory fitness in 35% and B11% participated in taste perception tests. The proportion of children donating venous blood, urine and saliva was 57, 86 and 88%, respectively. Conclusion: The IDEFICS cohort provides valuable data to investigate the interplay of social, environmental, genetic, physiological and behavioural factors in the development of major diet-and lifestyle-related disorders affecting children at present.

on behalf of the IDEFICS consortium OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) using reference standards obtained in European children and to develop a quantitative MetS score and describe its distribution in children. DESIGN AND METHODS: Population-based survey in eight European countries, including 18 745 children 2.0 to 10.9 years, recruited during a second survey. Anthropometry (weight, height and waist circumference), blood pressure and serum-fasting triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose and insulin were measured. We applied three widely accepted definitions of the pediatric MetS and we suggest a new definition, to guide pediatricians in decisions about close monitoring or even intervention (values of at least three of the MetS components exceeding the 90th or 95th percentile, respectively). We used a z-score standardisation to calculate a continuous score combining the MetS components. RESULTS: Among the various definitions of MetS, the highest prevalence (5.5%) was obtained with our new definition requiring close observation (monitoring level). Our more conservative definition, requiring pediatric intervention gives a prevalence of 1.8%. In general, prevalences were higher in girls than in boys. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome is highest among obese children. All definitions classify a small percentage of thin or normal weight children as being affected. The metabolic syndrome score shows a positive trend with age, particularly regarding the upper percentiles of the score. CONCLUSIONS: According to different definitions of pediatric MetS, a non-negligible proportion of mostly prepubertal children are classified as affected. We propose a new definition of MetS that should improve clinical guidance. The continuous score developed may also serve as a useful tool in pediatric obesity research. It has to be noted, however, that the proposed cutoffs are based on a statistical definition that does not yet allow to quantify the risk of subsequent disease.

on behalf of the IDEFICS consortium BACKGROUND: There is a lack of common surveillance systems providing comparable figures and temporal trends of the prevalence of overweight (OW), obesity and related risk factors among European preschool and school children. Comparability of available data is limited in terms of sampling design, methodological approaches and quality assurance. The IDEFICS (Identification and prevention of Dietary-and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and infantS) study provides one of the largest European data sets of young children based on state-of-the-art methodology. OBJECTIVE: To assess the European distribution of weight status according to different classification systems based on body mass index (BMI) in children (2.0-9.9 years). To describe the prevalence of weight categories by region, sex, age and socioeconomic position. DESIGN: Between 2007 and 2010, 18 745 children from eight European countries participated in an extensive, highly standardised protocol including, among other measures, anthropometric examinations and parental reports on socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: The combined prevalence of OW/obesity ranges from more than 40% in southern Europe to less than 10% in northern Europe. Overall, the prevalence of OW was higher in girls (21.1%) as compared with boys (18.6%). The prevalence of OW shows a negative gradient with social position, with some variation of the strength and consistency of this association across Europe. Overall, population groups with low income and/or lower education levels show the highest prevalence of obesity. The use of different reference systems to classify OW results in substantial differences in prevalence estimates and can even reverse the reported difference between boys and girls. CONCLUSIONS: There is a higher prevalence of obesity in populations from southern Europe and in population groups with lower education and income levels. Our data confirm the need to develop and reinforce European public health policies to prevent early obesity and to reduce these health inequalities and regional disparities.

In non-inferiority trials, where non-inferiority of a new experimental drug compared to an active control has to be shown, it may be advisable to use an additional placebo group for internal validation if ethically justifiable. The focus of this paper is on such designs. Assuming normality and homogeneity of variances we will derive a statistical test procedure which turns out to be equivalent to the assessment based on Fieller's confidence interval. Based on the power function of this test, sample size calculations are carried out to achieve a given power. Additionally, the optimal allocation of the total sample size is derived. As an alternative to this parametric procedure, the bootstrap percentile interval is discussed and finally compared with Fieller's confidence interval in a study on mildly asthmatic patients.

BackgroundOlder adults are the most sedentary segment of society and high sedentary time is associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes in this population. Identifying determinants of sedentary behaviour is a necessary step to develop interventions to reduce sedentary time.MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted to identify factors associated with sedentary behaviour in older adults. Pubmed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for articles published between 2000 and May 2014. The search strategy was based on four key elements: (a) sedentary behaviour and its synonyms; (b) determinants and its synonyms (e.g. correlates, factors); (c) types of sedentary behaviour (e.g. TV viewing, sitting, gaming) and (d) types of determinants (e.g. environmental, behavioural). Articles were included in the review if specific information about sedentary behaviour in older adults was reported. Studies on samples identified by disease were excluded. Study quality was rated by means of QUALSYST. The full review protocol is available from PROSPERO (PROSPERO 2014: CRD42014009823). The analysis was guided by the socio-ecological model framework.ResultsTwenty-two original studies were identified out of 4472 returned by the systematic search. These included 19 cross-sectional, 2 longitudinal and 1 qualitative studies, all published after 2011. Half of the studies were European. The study quality was generally high with a median of 82 % (IQR 69–96 %) using Qualsyst tool. Personal factors were the most frequently investigated with consistent positive association for age, negative for retirement, obesity and health status. Only four studies considered environmental determinants suggesting possible association with mode of transport, type of housing, cultural opportunities and neighbourhood safety and availability of places to rest. Only two studies investigated mediating factors. Very limited information was available on contexts and sub-domains of sedentary behaviours.ConclusionFew studies have investigated determinants of sedentary behaviour in older adults and these have to date mostly focussed on personal factors, and qualitative studies were mostly lacking. More longitudinal studies are needed as well as inclusion of a broader range of personal and contextual potential determinants towards a systems-based approach, and future studies should be more informed by qualitative work.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12966-015-0292-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.