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Real-time problem diagnosis in large distributed computer systems and networks is a challenging task that requires fast and accurate inferences from potentially huge data volumes. In this paper, we propose a cost-efficient, adaptive diagnostic technique called active probing. Probes are end-to-end test transactions that collect information about the performance of a distributed system. Active probing uses probabilistic reasoning techniques combined with information-theoretic approach, and allows a fast online inference about the current system state via active selection of only a small number of most-informative tests. We demonstrate empirically that the active probing scheme greatly reduces both the number of probes (from 60% to 75% in most of our real-life applications), and the time needed for localizing the problem when compared with nonadaptive (preplanned) probing schemes. We also provide some theoretical results on the complexity of probe selection, and the effect of "noisy" probes on the accuracy of diagnosis. Finally, we discuss how to model the system's dynamics using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), and an efficient approximate approach called sequential multifault; empirical results demonstrate clear advantage of such approaches over "static" techniques that do not handle system's changes.

We investigate the use of probing technology for the purpose of problem determination and fault localization in networks. We present a framework for addressing this issue and implement algorithms that exploit interactions between probe paths to find a small collection of probes that can be used to locate faults. Small probe sets are desirable in order to minimize the costs imposed by probing, such as additional network load and data management requirements. Our results show that although finding the optimal collection of probes is expensive for large networks, efficient approximation algorithms can be used to find a nearly-optimal set.

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We describe algorithms and an architecture for a real-time problem determination system that uses online selection of most-informative measurementsthe approach called herein active probing. Probes are end-to-end test transactions which gather information about system components. Active probing allows probes to bc selected and sent on-demand, in response to one's belief about the state of the system. At each step the most informative next probe is computed and sent. As probe results are received, belief about the system state is updated using probabilistic inference. This process continues until the problem is diagnosed. We demonstrate through both analysis and simulation that the active probing scheme greatly reduces both the number of probes and the time needed for localizing the problem when compared with non-active probing schemes. Keywordsself-managing networks, real-time monitoring and problem determination, end-to-end response time measurements, AI techniquesiprobabilistic inference. information theory

While the static magnitude of thermal pain perception has been shown to follow a power-law function of the temperature, its dynamical features have been largely overlooked. Due to the slow temporal experience of pain, multiple studies now show that the time evolution of its magnitude can be captured with continuous online ratings. Here we use such ratings to model quantitatively the temporal dynamics of thermal pain perception. We show that a differential equation captures the details of the temporal evolution in pain ratings in individual subjects for different stimulus pattern complexities, and also demonstrates strong predictive power to infer pain ratings, including readouts based only on brain functional images.